Miami vs Florida State Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Miami vs Florida State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 4th at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 6 matchup. 

Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview

The Miami Hurricanes are 4-0 (0-0) this season after they defeated Florida by a score of 26-7 in their last game. Miami led 13-0 at halftime and 13-7 after the third quarter, before pulling away in the fourth for the nice victory. The Hurricanes out gained Florida by a total of 344-141, went 8-16 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Carson Beck went 17-30 for 160 yards and one interception, while Mark Fletcher Jr carried the ball 24 times for 116 yards and one score. CharMar Brown led the receivers with four catches for 53 yards in the game. The Miami defense recorded four sacks and seven tackles for loss in the victory. 

In their first three games, Miami defeated Notre Dame, Bethune-Cookman, and South Florida. The Hurricanes are averaging 36.8 points per game with 270.0 passing yards and 180.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 11.5 points against per game this season. Carson Beck has completed 73.2% of his passes for 972 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Malachi Toney has caught 22 passes for 268 yards and one score. Mark Fletcher Jr has led the ground game with 388 yards and five touchdowns on 66 carries this season. 

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

The Florida State Seminoles are 3-1 (0-1) this year after they lost to Virginia by a score of 46-38 in double overtime last week. Florida State trailed 14-0 in the second quarter and 35-28 in the fourth, but they were able to tie the game, before losing in the second overtime. The Seminoles out gained UVA by a total of 514-440, went 6-15 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at three in the game. Tommy Castellanos went 18-32 for 254 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while also rushing for 78 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries. Duce Robinson caught nine passes for 147 yards and one score in the loss. The FSU defense recorded two sacks and four tackles for loss in the game. 

In their first three games, Florida State defeated Alabama, East Texas A&M, and Kent State. The Seminoles are averaging 53.0 points per game with 263.8 passing yards and 336.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 19.0 points against per game this season. Tommy Castellanos has completed 64.3% of his passes for 848 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Duce Robinson has caught 17 passes for 346 yards and three scores. Gavin Sawchuk has led the rushing attack with 234 yards and six touchdowns on 42 carries this year. 

Why Florida State will beat Miami 

The home team has won each of Miami (FL)’s last four games.
Miami (FL) has lost each of its last four road games against AP-ranked teams.
Miami (FL) has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven October games as a road favorite.
Florida State has covered the spread in five of its last six games in October.

Total Points Facts

Each of Florida State’s last five games against conference opponents at Doak Campbell Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of Miami (FL)’s last five games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Florida State has recorded the largest margin of victory in a home game this season (74-points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
Florida State ranks 1st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (600.0).
Miami (FL) has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
Miami (FL) has recorded more total yards than its opponents in each of its last 22 games – longest active streak in the FBS.

Miami vs Florida State Prediction 

Florida State is coming off of a disappointing loss last week against Virginia, but their offense has been very strong to start the season. The Seminoles do have a win against Alabama this year and they are at home, so they are very capable of winning this game. Miami has played very strong defense in their first four games and they also have a big win against Notre Dame. This should be a great game to watch and I think Miami is a very good team, but I have to take Florida State with the points at home in this one. 

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