Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Mercyhurst University Lakers and the New Mexico State Aggies meet Saturday in college football action from Aggie Memorial Stadium in University Park. Here’s a Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Mercyhurst Lakers Betting Preview

Last year the Lakers couldn’t get a winning record together, but they did reasonably well in the conference games. Mercyhurst was 5-7 overall with a 4-3 run in the Northeast Conference, which put the team behind Central Connecticut and Duquesne in the standings. The Lakers went 2-1 to finish off the season, taking out St. Francis PA and Robert Morris in that trio.

Mercyhurst has one game in the bag already, taking on Youngstown State. In that matchup last Thursday the Lakers gave up points in every quarter (including 22 in the second) during a 43-10 blowout loss. Alex Gevaudan had an 18-of-31 line for 212 yards, one TD and two picks. Leading receiver Camden Lewis added 44 yards on three catches.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

Over on the New Mexico State side, they had a pretty forgettable 2025 campaign. The Aggies logged a meager 4-8 run overall with a 2-6 showing in Conference USA matchups. New Mexico State landed ahead of only Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston and UTEP in the standings.

In their opener this year the Aggies took on the Florida State Seminoles. New Mexico State gave up points in every quarter during a 34-17 loss. QB Trey Hedden had a 26-of-42 line for 272 yards, two scores and a pick. Brodrick Malone added six catches for 96 yards and James Jones rushed for 28 yards on 11 totes.

Mercyhurst Lakers @ New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• New Mexico State has won four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
• New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last five September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Mercyhurst Lakers will win

• New Mexico State has lost seven of its last eight games in September.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as a favorite.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of New Mexico State’s last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Five of New Mexico State’s last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Bernock Iya ranked T2nd in the Conference USA for interceptions (4) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranked 133rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (2.2).
• New Mexico State ranked 130th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters last season (-5.3).

Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State Prediction

I’ll take a stab on Mercyhurst. The Lakers really need a good bounce-back showing, though. Mercyhurst posted just 241 yards, 16 first downs, 3-of-9 on third-down tries and two picks in their loss to Youngstown State. The defense gave up 484 yards (252 rushing), 27 first downs and 9-of-13 on third downs, so they weren’t any better.

As for New Mexico State, they couldn’t hang with Florida State in their opener. That was mostly thanks to 419 total yards (217 rushing), 6.3 yards per play and 8-of-14 on third downs allowed by the defense. The O came up with 10-of-17 on third downs themselves but only 47 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per play. This matchup will be a lot more manageable but I think the Lakers can get in there.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Mercyhurst Lakers +28.5