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Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Iowa State (5-0) vs Cincinnati (3-1)
October 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati -1.5 — Over/Under: +52.5
Cincinnati Preview
Cincinnati has a 3-1 record this season and are sitting on the 6th place of the Big 12. They are 3-1 ATS, 3-1 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 1-0 away record. The Bearcats are coming off a 37-34 road win in Kansas and are playing Iowa State, UCF and Oklahoma State next.Offensively, the Bearcats average 39.5 points per game, which ranks 17th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 18.5 points per game, which is 36th. Cincinnati averages 479.5 total yards per game, with 191.5 rushing yards and 288.0 passing yards per game. They allow 356.0 total yards per game, with 107.0 rushing and 249.0 passing yards per game.
Brendan Sorsby leads the Bearcats with 1043 passing yards and 69.2% completed passes. Brendan Sorsby leads the team in rushing yards, with 227, while Cyrus Allen has a team-high 23 caught passes for 273 receiving yards, and has five touchdowns. Defensively, Jake Golday has a team-high 36 total tackles, 15 of them solo. Jake Golday leads the Bearcats in sacks, with two.
Iowa State Preview
Iowa State has a 5-0 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the Big 12. They are 3-1-1 ATS, 2-3 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and 1-0 away record. The Cyclones are coming off a 39-14 home win against Arizona and are playing Cincinnati, Colorado and BYU next.Offensively, the Cyclones average 31.6 points per game, which ranks 57th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 14.2 points per game, which is 18th. Iowa State averages 386.2 total yards per game, with 151.0 rushing yards and 235.2 passing yards per game. They allow 309.6 total yards per game, with 118.2 rushing and 191.4 passing yards per game.
Rocco Becht leads the Cyclones with 1103 passing yards and 65.8% completed passes. Carson Hansen leads the team in rushing yards, with 315, while Benjamin Brahmer has a team-high 16 caught passes for 138 receiving yards, and has three touchdowns. Defensively, Marcus Neal has a team-high 34 total tackles, 20 of them solo. Jace J. Gilbert leads the Cyclones in sacks, with two, while Caleb Bacon has two interceptions.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Trends: Week 6
Cincinnati Bearcats Player Prop Facts
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- Brendan Sorsby has recorded a 110.0+ passer rating in three consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS.
Iowa State Cyclones Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 6, Brett Eskildsen ranks T10th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (21.6) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Cincinnati ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
- Cincinnati ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Iowa State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- Iowa State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction
In their previous meeting last season, Iowa State won 34-17 at home. They have won both meetings against Cincinnati, and have covered the spread in both.In this Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction, Cincinnati is coming as -1.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 52 points. Both teams are coming off multiple wins, and Iowa State has been undefeated in their five games played this season. Both teams have been elite this season, as they have been winning by an average of 21 and 17.4 points per game. This game feels like a coin flip, so I will side with the team that will be playing in front of their home crowd. Take Cincinnati and lay the -1.5 points in this one.