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Illinois vs Purdue Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Illinois (4-1) vs Purdue (2-2)
October 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Purdue +8.5 — Over/Under: +55.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Purdue Boilermakers meet Saturday in college football action from Ross-Ade. Here’s an Illinois vs Purdue prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois vs Purdue pick. We will examine:
The Illinois Fighting Illini recent form and player performance
The Purdue Boilermakers recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Illinois Fighting Illini
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Purdue Boilermakers
Recent betting trends in games played between Illinois and Purdue
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Illinois vs Purdue game
Things were going quite well for the Illini over their first three games. Illinois demolished Western Illinois 52-3 in their opener, then beat Duke on the road 45-19. After coming home for a 38-0 blowout win over Western Michigan, the Illini were sitting pretty. Then came the Indiana game. The Hoosiers demolished Illinois in an embarrassing showing, posting 21 points in the second quarter alone during a 63-10 outcome. The Illini could muster just 161 yards on offense (159 passing) with 3.6 yards per play and nine first downs.
In last weekend’s matchup versus USC, the Illini led 24-17 by the end of the third quarter and managed to hang on for the win 34-32 in a thriller. QB Luke Altmyer was 20-of-26 for 328 yards and two scores, while also posting a rush TD. Kaden Feagin had 14 carries for 60 yards, and Collin Dixon had four catches for 90 yards to top the receivers.
Over on the Purdue side, they’ve got four games in the books so far this season—generating a .500 record in that quartet. The Boilermakers started out very well with a 31-0 shutout win versus Ball State in the opener, then beat Southern Illinois 34-17. Purdue would then fall at home 33-17 to a good USC squad on September 13. The Boilermakers gave up 460 total yards (282 passing) in the loss alongside 6.8 yards per play and 22 first downs. The offense also had three interceptions on the day.
Back on September 20 in their latest matchup, the Boilermakers took on Notre Dame. Purdue gave up 21 points in both the second and third quarters, eventually falling 56-30. QB Ryan Browne was 21-of-34 for 250 yards, one TD and one pick in the defeat, while Malachi Singleton led the rush on 26 yards from five carries. Tops in receiving was Nitro Tuggle with three catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in the defeat.
Heading into Week 6, Devin Mockobee leads Purdue for touchdowns (3) this season.
Illinois Fighting Illini Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 6, Luke Altmyer ranks T9th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (11) this season.
Purdue ranks 126th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.5).
Purdue ranks 125th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-4.3).
Illinois ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Illinois ranks T11th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (20.0).
I’ll take a stab on Purdue here. Probably not touching it in reality, though. The Boilermakers didn’t look spectacular against an angry Notre Dame team in their latest outing, giving up 535 yards (254 rushing), 27 first downs and 6-of-10 on third-down tries alongside 8.5 yards per play to that offense. Purdue gained 379 yards (303 passing) and 20 first downs on the other side but couldn’t keep up thanks to 4-of-14 on third downs and two picks. During the last two games—both versus ranked teams—Purdue has given up a combined 89 points. They’ve got to figure out a way to keep the Illinois offense in check this weekend.
Speaking of the Illini, they managed to fend off a persistent USC team last weekend thanks to a nice offensive outing (minus the two lost fumbles anyway). Illinois came away with 502 yards (311 passing), 8.1 yards per play and 25 first downs, sorely needed after the debacle against Indiana. It’s the Illini’s first win over a top-25 team so far this year and they’ve got huge home matchup versus Ohio State looming on October 11. First things first, though.
The Illinois Fighting Illini recent form and player performance
The Purdue Boilermakers recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Illinois Fighting Illini
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Purdue Boilermakers
Recent betting trends in games played between Illinois and Purdue
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Illinois vs Purdue game
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Things were going quite well for the Illini over their first three games. Illinois demolished Western Illinois 52-3 in their opener, then beat Duke on the road 45-19. After coming home for a 38-0 blowout win over Western Michigan, the Illini were sitting pretty. Then came the Indiana game. The Hoosiers demolished Illinois in an embarrassing showing, posting 21 points in the second quarter alone during a 63-10 outcome. The Illini could muster just 161 yards on offense (159 passing) with 3.6 yards per play and nine first downs.
In last weekend’s matchup versus USC, the Illini led 24-17 by the end of the third quarter and managed to hang on for the win 34-32 in a thriller. QB Luke Altmyer was 20-of-26 for 328 yards and two scores, while also posting a rush TD. Kaden Feagin had 14 carries for 60 yards, and Collin Dixon had four catches for 90 yards to top the receivers.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
Over on the Purdue side, they’ve got four games in the books so far this season—generating a .500 record in that quartet. The Boilermakers started out very well with a 31-0 shutout win versus Ball State in the opener, then beat Southern Illinois 34-17. Purdue would then fall at home 33-17 to a good USC squad on September 13. The Boilermakers gave up 460 total yards (282 passing) in the loss alongside 6.8 yards per play and 22 first downs. The offense also had three interceptions on the day.
Back on September 20 in their latest matchup, the Boilermakers took on Notre Dame. Purdue gave up 21 points in both the second and third quarters, eventually falling 56-30. QB Ryan Browne was 21-of-34 for 250 yards, one TD and one pick in the defeat, while Malachi Singleton led the rush on 26 yards from five carries. Tops in receiving was Nitro Tuggle with three catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in the defeat.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends: Week 6
Purdue Boilermakers Player Prop Facts
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Heading into Week 6, Devin Mockobee leads Purdue for touchdowns (3) this season.
Illinois Fighting Illini Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 6, Luke Altmyer ranks T9th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (11) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Purdue ranks 126th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.5).
Purdue ranks 125th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-4.3).
Illinois ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Illinois ranks T11th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (20.0).
Illinois vs Purdue Prediction
I’ll take a stab on Purdue here. Probably not touching it in reality, though. The Boilermakers didn’t look spectacular against an angry Notre Dame team in their latest outing, giving up 535 yards (254 rushing), 27 first downs and 6-of-10 on third-down tries alongside 8.5 yards per play to that offense. Purdue gained 379 yards (303 passing) and 20 first downs on the other side but couldn’t keep up thanks to 4-of-14 on third downs and two picks. During the last two games—both versus ranked teams—Purdue has given up a combined 89 points. They’ve got to figure out a way to keep the Illinois offense in check this weekend.
Speaking of the Illini, they managed to fend off a persistent USC team last weekend thanks to a nice offensive outing (minus the two lost fumbles anyway). Illinois came away with 502 yards (311 passing), 8.1 yards per play and 25 first downs, sorely needed after the debacle against Indiana. It’s the Illini’s first win over a top-25 team so far this year and they’ve got huge home matchup versus Ohio State looming on October 11. First things first, though.
Andrew Jett's Pick: Purdue Boilermakers +8.5
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