Fresno State vs USC Prediction 9/4/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Fresno State Bulldogs and USC Trojans meet Friday in college football action at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Here’s a Fresno State vs USC Prediction. This article will include a Fresno State vs USC Pick.

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Fresno State won nine games last season and enters the second year under coach Matt Entz. Fresno State has won at least six games in each of the last five years.

Fresno State returns its top playmakers at running back (Rayshon Luke) and wide receiver (Josiah Freeman). It’s a question of who will win the starting quarterback job between Khristian Martin and Jayden Mandal. Whoever wins it will have players they can rely on to take off pressure. Fresno State was elite defensively last season, and defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto is back for another season. Simeon Harris and K’vion Thunderbird are the standouts of this group, while Tytus Khajavi has breakout potential at linebacker. Fresno State is coached well and has difference makers on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs shouldn’t be slept on at any point in the season.

USC Trojans Betting Preview

The USC Trojans beat San Jose State, and they play Louisiana and Rutgers next. The USC Trojans look for a fifth straight 2-0 start to the college football season. Jayden Maiava is completing 86.2 percent of his passes for 286 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Trent Mosley and Tron Baker have combined for 163 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Corey Simms has 4 receptions.

The USC Trojans’ ground game is averaging 164 yards per contest, and King Miller leads the way with 63 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, USC is allowing 26 points and 336 yards per game. Jide Abasiri leads the USC Trojans with 4 tackles, Jadyn Ramos has 1 sack, and Luke Wafle has 1 pass deflection.

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last 17 home games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Fresno State has lost 10 of its last 12 road openers.
• USC has covered the spread in each of its last six September home games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as an underdog in California.
• USC has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
• USC has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won 11 of its last 12 games in September.
• USC has lost four of its last five games against opponents from the Pac-12 Conference.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games against AP-ranked teams.
• USC has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against opponents from the Pac-12 Conference.
• Fresno State has won the first quarter in nine of its last 11 games in September.
• Fresno State has won the first half in each of its last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of USC’s last eight games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Fresno State’s last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

USC Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Jayden Maiava ranked 5th amongst FBS players for passing yards (3711) last season.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Rayshon Luke ranked T3rd amongst qualified players for catch rate (92.3%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for passing yards per game last season (296.0).
• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage last season (51.3).
• Fresno State ranked 2nd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game last season (153.8).
• Fresno State ranked 5th among FBS teams for interceptions last season (20).

Fresno State vs USC Prediction

I like the fact that USC has had a chance to get a game under its belt and get the jitters out of the way. There’s value in that. However, this is a lot of points to give a good Fresno State team that has playmakers on offense and can be elite defensively. Fresno State is not a pushover, as this is a team that went into Boise State last year and left with a blowout win. Let’s also not act as if we didn’t just see USC allow San Jose State to hang around. I’m just higher on Fresno State than most, I guess, as I just don’t believe this is a pushover team. I’ll grab the free touchdowns with the Bulldogs.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Fresno State +22.5