Duke vs North Carolina Prediction 11/22/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Duke Blue Devils and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet Saturday in college football action from Kenan Memorial Stadium. Here’s a Duke vs North Carolina prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Duke vs North Carolina pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Duke started out the year at 1-2 with a win over Elon ahead of losses to Illinois and Tulane. The Blue Devils would then beat NC State, Syracuse and Cal before a loss to Georgia Tech. After a win over Clemson came another loss, this time 37-34 versus UConn. In that November 8 defeat, Duke scored points in every quarter but also gave up points in every quarter. The offense generated 390 total yards with 6.0 yards per play and 26 first downs, but also went just 3-of-8 on third-down tries and had three turnovers in the losing effort.

In last weekend’s matchup with Virginia, Duke faced a 17-3 deficit at the half, then gave up 14 unanswered points in the third quarter. After a couple of cosmetic touchdowns (and points surrendered in all four quarters) the Blue Devils lot 34-17. QB Darian Mensah had an 18-of-35 line for 213 yards and a score while Nate Sheppard had 12 carries for 43 yards. Landen King added two catches for 48 yards, and Jeremiah Hasley had three grabs for 47 yards. Cooper Barkate was right there on three catches for 45 yards and a TD as well during the loss.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

Over on the North Carolina side, they posted a 2-1 run in their first three with a loss to TCU ahead of wins versus Charlotte and Richmond. The Tar Heels lost to UCF, Clemson, Cal and Virginia after that, then recovered on wins over Syracuse and Stanford. In the 20-15 win over the Cardinal on November 8, the Tar Heels were outscored 12-10 in the final quarter but held on. The offense notched a tepid 253 yards with only 13 first downs, and the team committed 11 penalties for 73 total yards. The defense held pretty strong on the other side, though.

UNC played Wake Forest back on Saturday. In that one the Tar Heels gave up a touchdown in each quarter during a 28-12 road defeat. QB Gio Lopez logged a 21-of-36 line for 201 yards, while Demon June had nine carries for 32 yards. Jake Johnson was the top receiver for the Tar Heels in the losing effort with his five catches for 54 total yards.

Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends: Week 13

North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 13, Melkart Abou-Jaoude ranks 1st in the Atlantic Coast Conference for sacks (10.0) this season.

Duke Blue Devils Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 13, Darian Mensah ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Carolina ranks T129th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (4.2).
• North Carolina ranks T129th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (161).
• Duke ranks 8th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (302.9).
• Duke ranks 9th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.2).

Duke vs North Carolina Prediction

I’ll lean toward Duke, but I’m probably staying away. With both teams struggling (and coming off losses) there’s not a ton to get excited about outside of the rivalry—and the Blue Devils trying for their sixth win. In any case, Duke posted a pretty limp offensive effort versus a good Virginia team last weekend, with 255 total yards, 4.4 yards per play, 11 first downs and 4-of-15 on third-down tries. The defense came up with a couple of picks on the other side but also gave up 540 yards, 22 first downs and 12-of-19 on third-down conversion attempts to the Cavs. Duke has lost three of the last four, and they’ve given up 27 or more points in all four of those outings as well. UNC has been below 19 points in all six of their losses this year, so a good defensive effort from the Blue Devils will be key to their success on the road in a rivalry matchup this weekend.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Duke Blue Devils -6.5