Pick details
| MATCHUP | Central Michigan Chippewas | New Mexico Lobos |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Spread | +10.5 -112 | -10.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | +340 | -440 |
| Total | Over 46.5 (-112) | Under 46.5 (-108) |
| Where | University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM | |
| When | Saturday, September 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 10:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | FS1 | |
New Mexico Preview
New Mexico finished last season with a 9-4 overall record, a 6-2 conference record, and placed 2nd in the MWC. They had a 6-0 home record and a 3-3 road record. Offensively, the Lobos scored 27.1 points per game (ranking 73rd in the nation). Defensively, New Mexico allowed 22.3 points per game (ranking 46th in the nation). They averaged 356.8 total yards per game (152.1 rushing, 204.8 passing) and gave up 341.9 total yards per game (112.8 rushing, 229.2 passing).
Jack Layne led the Lobos with 213/327 completed passes and 2,486 total passing yards, throwing 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Damon Bankston led the team in rushing yards with 1,146, adding a team-high 14 rushing touchdowns, while Cade Keith had a team-high 20 caught passes for 253 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Jaxton Eck led the team with 129 total tackles (65 solo), while Keyshawn James-Newby led New Mexico in sacks with 9.0.
Central Michigan Preview
Central Michigan finished last season with a 7-6 overall record, a 5-3 conference record, and placed 5th in the MAC. They had a 4-1 home record and a 3-4 road record. Offensively, the Chippewas scored 22.5 points per game (ranking 105th in the nation). Defensively, Central Michigan allowed 23.5 points per game (ranking 55th in the nation). They averaged 330.5 total yards per game (163.5 rushing, 167.1 passing) and gave up 355.1 total yards per game (145.7 rushing, 209.4 passing).
Joey Labas led the Chippewas with 147/208 completed passes and 1,854 total passing yards, throwing 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Trey Cornist led the team in rushing yards with 470, adding a team-high 13 rushing touchdowns, while Langston Lewis had a team-high 35 caught passes for 596 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Jordan Kwiatkowski led the team with 117 total tackles (52 solo), while Michael Heldman led Central Michigan in sacks with 10.5.
Central Michigan Chippewas @ New Mexico Lobos Betting Trends: Week 1
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- Central Michigan has lost 18 of its last 19 road games in September.
- New Mexico has won each of its last seven home games.
- The favorite has covered the spread in each of Central Michigan’s last four games.
- Central Michigan has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
- New Mexico has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games.
- Central Michigan has lost the first half in each of its last 19 road games in September.
Why the Central Michigan Chippewas will win
- Central Michigan has won four of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico has lost each of its last three season openers.
- Central Michigan has covered the spread in seven of its last eight season openers.
- New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 September games as a home favorite.
- Central Michigan has won the first quarter in three of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Central Michigan has won the first half in six of its last seven games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of New Mexico’s last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Central Michigan’s last six road games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts
- Brett Karhu ranked T3rd in the Mountain West Conference for sacks (7.5) last season.
Central Michigan Chippewas Player Prop Facts
- Brock Townsend was one of only 21 players in the FBS to record 3+ rushing and 3+ receiving TDs last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team last season (4).
- New Mexico ranked 123rd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (3.3).
- Central Michigan ranked 7th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (35.7).
- Central Michigan ranked T11th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against last season (72.7).
Central Michigan vs New Mexico Prediction
In this Central Michigan vs New Mexico Prediction, New Mexico is coming as -11.5 home favorites. Last season New Mexico had a better overall record, it was undefeated at home, while Central Michigan was below average on the road. The Lobos were also better both offensively and defensively, as the Chippewas had a negative point differential throughout the season. New Mexico is also projected as an almost top-40 team this season, while Central Michigan sits outside the top-90. I like New Mexico to take care of business in their season opener at home, so I will lay the double digits in this one.
Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: New Mexico -11.5
