Boise State vs Oregon Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Boise State Broncos and Oregon Ducks meet Saturday in college football action at Autzen Stadium. Here’s a Boise State vs Oregon Prediction. This article will include a Boise State vs Oregon Pick.

Boise State Broncos Betting Preview

Boise State won nine games last season and enters year three under coach Spencer Danielson. Boise State has won no fewer than eight games in each of the last four seasons.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen returns for another season and brings 6,586 passing yards and 50 touchdowns with him. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines are one of the best running back tandems. The wide receiver room took a hit, but the offensive line looks promising and should produce another physical, bruising offense. Defensively, Boise State says goodbye to its top three tacklers, but Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Jaden Mickey are difference makers and should set the tone. Overall, Boise State has a strong returning core and should be the clear favorites to win the PAC-12.

Oregon Ducks Betting Preview

Oregon has won double-digit games in five straight seasons and enters year five under coach Dan Lanning. Oregon has won 10 or more games overall in 13 of the last 18 seasons.

Oregon has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Dante Moore, who threw for 30 touchdowns last season. Jamari Johnson is one of the better tight ends in the country, and Dakorien Moore is coming off 34 receptions. This offense should still hum under Moore. Defensively, Oregon has a first-round draft prospect in defensive lineman A’Mauri Washington and a quality defensive back in Aaron Flowers. There are new coordinators, which could take some adjusting, but Oregon is as stacked as any team in the league and is a popular pick to win the national title.

Why the Oregon Ducks will win

• Oregon has won each of its last 43 home games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Boise State has lost each of its last seven September games as an underdog.
• Oregon has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games at Autzen Stadium.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four season openers.
• Boise State has lost the first half three of its last four games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won seven of its last nine games in September.
• Oregon has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five September games as a top-5 AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Boise State has covered the spread in five of its last six games in September.

Total Points Facts

• Eleven of Boise State’s last 12 games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Oregon’s last five games against non-conference opponents at Autzen Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Oregon Ducks Player Prop Facts

• Dante Moore ranked T6th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (30) last season.

Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Dylan Riley ranked 2nd in the Mountain West Conference for rushing yards (1125) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Oregon ranked 4th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters last season (+7.7).
• Oregon ranked 4th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters last season (+6.9).
• Boise State ranked 13th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (39.1).
• Boise State ranked T14th among FBS teams for 1st downs last season (312).

Boise State vs Oregon Prediction

Oregon is obviously the more talented team and is always a tough out at home. I get the Ducks are going to get big respect from oddsmakers. However, this line is disrespectful toward an experienced Boise State team that has a proven quarterback, explosive run game, and a physical defense. Boise State isn’t a pushover whatsoever. Sure, Oregon will win, but we’regetting more than three free touchdowns. This isn’t Ball State, folks. Boise State is good and has respected players. Give me the points.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Boise State +24.5