Baylor vs Oklahoma State Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma State Cowboys meet in week 5 college football action from Boone Pickens Stadium on Friday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction.

Baylor Bears Recap

The Baylor Bears come into this game looking to rebound from a 27-24 loss at the hands of Arizona State last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, Baylor will head home for a game against Kansas State.

Bears Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Sawyer Robertson has thrown for 1,320 yards, 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 62.6% passing while Bryson Washington leads the Bears on the ground with 415 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Josh Cameron has a team-high 21 grabs for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead Baylor in receiving while Ashtyn Hawkins and Michael Trigg each have 200+ receiving yards with Trigg logging 3 touchdowns. Kole Wilson and Kobe Prentice have each added 150+ receiving yards for Baylor’s receiving group with Prentice logging 4 touchdowns as well this season. On defense, Keaton Thomas has a team-high 38 total tackles including 25 solo tackles while Emar’rion Winston has a pair of sacks. As a unit, Baylor’s defense has combined for 6 sacks and 4 interceptions so far this season. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys Recap

The Oklahoma State Cowboys come into this game looking to rebound from a 19-12 loss at the hands of Tulsa last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, Oklahoma State will head on the road for a game against Arizona.

Cowboys Looking To Rebound Under New Head Coach

Zane Flores has thrown for 417 yards and 2 INTs on 57% passing while Rodney Fields Jr. has rushed for a team-high 143 yards on 27 carries so far this season. Terrill Davis leads OK State in receiving with 115 receiving yards while Gavin Freeman has a team-high 9 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. On defense, Bryan McCoy Jr. and Brandon Rawls each have a team-high 26 total tackles while Wendell Gregory’s added a team-high 3 sacks for the Cowboys so far this season.

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys will win

• The underdog has won four of Baylor’s last six games.
• Baylor has lost three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The underdog has covered the spread in five of Baylor’s last six games.

Why the Baylor Bears will win

• Oklahoma State has lost each of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
• Baylor has won six of its last seven games against conference opponents.
• Oklahoma State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Baylor’s last four games.
• Oklahoma State has lost the first half in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Oklahoma State’s last five games as a home underdog against teams from Texas have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Baylor’s last four September road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Zane Flores has the most pass attempts without a passing touchdown this season (79).

Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Sawyer Robertson ranks 1st amongst FBS players for passing yards (1320) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Oklahoma State ranks 136th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (2.0).
• Oklahoma State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Two of Baylor’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Baylor ranks 7th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (338.5).

Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction

I’m on Baylor here. Sure, it’s a massive number to lay on the road and someties you get the dead cat bounce from teams after they make a coaching change. However, there’s a lot more wrong with this Oklahoma State program than just firing Mike Gundy, as the QB play is terrible, and this team just can’t move the ball up and down the field. Baylor has issues defensively, but I don’t think Oklahoma State’s even built enough to take advantage of those frailties. Give me Baylor here.