Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks meet in week 5 college football action from Malone Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks prediction.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Recap

The Arkansas State Red Wolves come into this game looking to rebound from a 28-21 loss at the hands of Kennesaw State last time out to sit at 1-3 this season. After this game, the Red Wolves will head home for a game against Texas State.

Red Wolves Drop Three Straight

Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 918 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 65.5% passing while Devin Spencer leads A-State in rushing with 165 yards and a touchdown. Raynor and Jaylen Clay each have 100+ rushing yards as well this season. Chauncy Cobb also has 19 receptions for 241 yards and Hunter Summers has 14 catches for 210 yards and Corey Rucker also has 109 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Nigel Nelson has a team-high 25 total tackles and Avante Dickerson has a pair of interceptions. As a unit, Arkansas State’s defense has combined for 7 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Recap

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks come into this game looking to add on to their 31-25 win over UTEP last time out to improve to 2-1 this season. After this game, Louisiana-Monroe will head on the road for a game against Northwestern.

Warhawks Looking To Pick Up Big Conference Win At Home

Aidan Armenta has thrown for 259 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 54.9% passing while Braylon McReynolds leads ULM in rushing with 244 rushing yards and a touchdown and Dorian Lewis has 131 rushing yards so far this season. Jake Godfrey leads ULM with 70 receiving yards and a touchdown while Tyler Griffin has a team-high 6 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown of his own so far this season. On defense, Noah Flemmings has a team-high 17 total tackles while Dylan Howell and D’Arco Perkins-McAllister each have a pair of sacks so far this season. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks will win

• Arkansas State has lost 10 of its last 11 road games in September.
• Louisiana-Monroe has won seven of its last eight home games in September.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Arkansas State’s last four games.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three road games in September.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Louisiana-Monroe has lost each of its last five games against conference opponents.
• Arkansas State has won six of its last eight games against teams from Louisiana.
• Louisiana-Monroe has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games against teams from Louisiana.
• Louisiana-Monroe has lost the first half in 21 of its last 28 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisiana-Monroe’s last six September games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of Arkansas State’s last six games at Malone Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Hunter Herring leads Louisiana-Monroe for touchdowns (2) this season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Avante Dickerson leads the Sun Belt Conference for interceptions (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Louisiana-Monroe ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Louisiana-Monroe ranks T133rd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (109.0).
• Arkansas State ranks 136th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (16.3).
• Arkansas State ranks 136th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-12.8).

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Prediction

I’m on the Red Wolves here. ULM managed to pick up a win over UTEP last time out, but I still have my doubts about this Warhawks team offensively. Arkansas State has a really solid offense and just ran into a tough opponent in Kennesaw State after big game after big game especially after playing Arkansas the week prior. Give me Arkansas State here for the bounce back on the road.