Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction 11/1/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate an Arkansas State vs Troy prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, November 1st at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 10 matchup. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 4-4 (3-1) this year after they defeated Georgia Southern by a score of 34-24 last week. Arkansas State trailed 21-17 at halftime, but they out scored Georgia Southern 17-3 in the second half for the win. The Red Wolves out gained Georgia Southern by a total of 482-336, went 11-18 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Jaylen Raynor went 24-37 for 216 yards and one interception, while Kenyon Clay rushed 17 times for 124 yards and one touchdown. Chauncy Cobb led the receivers with 12 receptions for 81 yards in the win. The Ark State defense recorded four sacks and seven tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Arkansas State defeated South Alabama by a score of 15-14 and Texas State by a score of 31-30. The Red Wolves have won three games in a row and they are currently third in the Sun Belt West standings. Arkansas State has scored 23.6 points per game with 235.4 passing yards and 142.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 28.5 points against per game this season. Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,876 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Chauncy Cobb has 52 catches for 555 yards this year. 

Troy Trojans Betting Preview

The Troy Trojans are 6-2 (4-0) this season after they defeated Louisiana by a score of 35-23 in their last game. Troy led 21-17 at halftime and only allowed two field goals in the second half for the win. The Trojans were out gained by a total of 371-345, went 9-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Tucker Kilcrease went 16-24 for 180 yards and one interception, while Jordan Lovett rushed 21 times for 113 yards and two scores. Ethan Conner led the receivers with three catches for 68 yards in the win. The Troy defense recorded four sacks and seven tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Troy defeated UL Monroe by a score of 37-14 and Texas State by a score of 48-41. The Trojans have won five games in a row and they are currently tied for first in the Sun Belt West standings. Troy has scored 29.1 points per game with 207.8 passing yards and 133.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.3 points against per game this season. Tucker Kilcrease has thrown for 1,234 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Tae Meadows has rushed for 498 yards and four scores on 99 carries this season. 

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won each of its last 10 November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Arkansas State has lost five of its last six November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has covered the spread in seven of Arkansas State’s last eight games.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Arkansas State has lost the first half in six of its last eight road games against conference opponents.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won each of its last three games as an underdog.
• The underdog has covered the spread in five of Arkansas State’s last six games.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Troy’s last nine games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of Arkansas State’s last eight November games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Troy ranks 6th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+6.3).
• Troy ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.4).
• Arkansas State ranks 125th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (195.6).
• Arkansas State ranks T123rd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (3.4).

Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction 

Troy comes into this matchup on a five game winning streak and they have scored at least 35 points in three straight games. The Trojans do have two overtime wins during this streak, so they are fortunate to be undefeated in conference play. Arkansas State has won three games in a row, but they have allowed at least 24 points in two of those three games. I think we are going to see plenty of scoring in this contest, so I like the over in this game.

David Racey is 93-72 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!