Arkansas State vs Michigan Prediction College Football Picks 9/14/24

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Michigan Wolverines meet Saturday in college football action from Michigan Stadium. Here’s an Arkansas State vs Michigan prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Arkansas State vs Michigan pick. We will examine:

The Arkansas State Red Wolves’ recent form and player performance

The Michigan Wolverines’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arkansas State Red Wolves

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan Wolverines

Recent betting trends in games played between Arkansas State and Michigan

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Arkansas State vs Michigan game

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

Arkansas State got their season going with a matchup versus Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves were outscored 31-21 in the second half but held on for the win 34-31. Jaylen Raynor posted 317 pass yards and a TD. Corey Rucker was tops in receiving on nine grabs for 179 yards and a score.

The Red Wolves played Tulsa in game two. In that one Arkansas State was down 17-7 by the break. The Red Wolves scored 21 points in the third quarter during a 28-24 comeback win. Raynor had a rush TD while throwing for 255 yards, two scores, and a pick in the victory. Zak Wallace added 16 carries for 78 yards.

Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

Over on the Michigan side, they didn’t have too many problems versus Fresno State in their opener (despite leading just 13-3 after three quarters) in a 30-10 win. Davis Warren threw for 118 yards, one TD, and an interception. Kalel Mullings was the top rusher with 92 yards off 15 totes.

Matched up against Texas in game two, the Wolverines had their hands full. Michigan trailed 24-3 by halftime and limped to a blowout loss 31-12. Warren had 204 yards with one TD and two interceptions. Colston Loveland added eight catches for 70 yards.

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

• Michigan has won each of its last 28 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Arkansas State has lost each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan has covered the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won each of its last four games in September.
• Michigan has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six September games at Michigan Stadium.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Michigan’s last nine September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of Arkansas State’s last nine games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan ranks 20th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (11.5).
• Michigan has won the Big Ten Championship in each of the last three seasons.
• Arkansas State ranks T20th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (21.0).
• Arkansas State ranks T29th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (1.5).

Arkansas State vs Michigan Prediction

I’m leaning toward Michigan. The Wolverines were overwhelmed by a great Texas team in their last outing. Michigan notched just 284 total yards (204 passing), 13 first downs, three turnovers, and a rough 3-of-12 rate on third-down tries. The Wolverines’ defense couldn’t get off the field either, giving up 10-fo16 on thirds themselves.

As for Arkansas State, they get credit for a gritty comeback win over Tulsa. The Red Wolves posted 396 total yards (255 passing), 24 first downs, eight penalties, and two turnovers in a mixed game. I don’t think they’ll quite keep a cover pace against the Wolverines this weekend, though.