Arizona vs SMU Prediction 1/2/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Arizona Wildcats and the SMU Mustangs meet in the Holiday Bowl in college football action from the Snapdragon Stadium on Friday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs prediction.

Arizona Wildcats Recap

The Arizona Wildcats come into this game looking to add on to their 23-7 win over Arizona State last time out to finish the year 9-3, repping the Big 12 coming into this bowl game. 

Wildcats Looking For First Bowl Win Since 2023

Noah Fifita leads Arizona in passing with 2,963 yards, 26 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 64.2% passing while Ismail Mahdi leads Arizona in rushing with 791 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns this season. Quincy Craig and Kedrick Reescano each have 300+ rushing yards as well on the year. Kris Hutson leads Arizona in receiving with 57 grabs for 740 yards and 4 TDs while Javin Whatley has 38 catches for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tre Spivey has 359 receiving yards with 6 TDs and Chris Hunter has 351 receiving yards. On defense, Dalton Johnson has a team-high 97 total tackles and 4 interceptions while Chase Kennedy has a team-high 4 sacks and Riley Wilson has 3 sacks. Treydan Stukes and Jay’Vion Cole each have 4 interceptions as well so far this season. As a unit, Arizona’s defense has combined for 21 sacks and 19 interceptions so far this season.

SMU Mustangs Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into the bowl game on behalf of the ACC after finishing the year at 8-4 overall thanks to a 38-35 loss at the hands of Cal last time out.

Mustangs Looking For First Bowl Win Since 2012

Kevin Jennings has thrown for 3,363 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 66.1% passing while T.J. Harden leads SMU in rushing with 747 yards and 7 touchdowns. Chris Johnson Jr. also has 463 rushing yards and 4 TDs on the ground while Jordan Hudson has a team-high 56 receptions for 749 yards and 6 TDs. Romello Brinson has 638 receiving yards on 43 grabs with 3 TDs and Yamir Knight’s added 533 receiving yards with 5 TDs. On defense, Ahmaad Moses has a team-high 91 total tackles including 44 solo tackles along with a team-high 5 interceptions. Isaiah Smith has a team-high 8.5 sacks while Terry Webb has 5.5 sacks and Cameron Robertson and Jeffrey M’ba each have 5 sacks. As a unit, SMU’s defense has combined for 34 sacks and 17 interceptions so far this season.

Arizona Wildcats @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• Arizona has lost each of its last three games against non-AP-ranked teams at neutral venues.
• SMU has won 28 of its last 36 games.
• Arizona has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games as an AP-ranked team.
• SMU has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
• Arizona has lost the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.

Why the Arizona Wildcats will win

• Arizona has won each of its last 10 games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• SMU has lost each of its last four games at neutral venues.
• SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Arizona has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
• Arizona has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Arizona has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Arizona’s last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of SMU’s last five games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Ahmaad Moses ranks T7th amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.

Arizona Wildcats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Noah Fifita is one of only nine players in the league to record two or more passing touchdowns in six consecutive appearances this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 135th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (284.7).
• SMU ranks T5th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (70.5).
• Arizona ranks 4th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (155.9).
• Arizona ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (3.0).

Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction

I’m on Arizona here. I get the case to be made for SMU in this one, as they don’t have a ton of opt-out and still get their starting QB back in Kevin Jennings here. However, Arizona came on strong down the stretch, and I think this is a good looking Arizona squad that Brent Brennan has if he’s able to keep it together for 2026. I think Arizona puts the cherry on top here while I wonder where SMU is at after falling flat to close out the year and blowing their chance to make the ACC title game and potentially college football playoff. Give me Arizona here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Arizona -1.5