Liberty (8-3) vs Buffalo (8-4)
Game Info: Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 11:00 am (Thomas Robinson Stadium)
Betting Odds: Liberty +3.5 / Buffalo -3.5 --- Over/Under: 51.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
Where to Watch: ESPN2
The Buffalo Bulls and the Liberty Flames meet in the Bahamas Bowl in college football action from Thomas Robinson Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo vs. Liberty prediction.
Buffalo Recap
The Buffalo Bulls come into the bowl game on behalf of the MAC, finishing the year at 8-4 overall this season. The Bulls will be looking for their fourth straight bowl game victory in their first bowl appearance since 2022 when they won the Camellia Bowl.
Bulls Enter As They Are
The Buffalo Bulls come into the bowl game as one of the cleanest reports during bowl season with little change to the roster in terms of opt outs and players in the transfer portal, which is rare in this day and age. C.J. Ogbonna has thrown for 2,244 yards, 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 57.1% passing while also rushing for 311 yards and 8 TDs. Al-Jay Henderson has a team-high 959 rushing yards with 8 TDs and Jacqez Barksdale has 286 rushing yards. Victor Snow leads the Bulls with 51 grabs for 610 yards and 6 TDs and JJ Jenkins has 36 receptions for 536 yards as well. On defense, Shaun Dolac has a team-high 159 total tackles along with 5.5 sacks and 5 interceptions while Kobe Stewart has a team-high 9.5 sacks. Red Murdock has 143 total tackles and a pair of sacks and Marquis Cooper has a pair of INTs while Dion Crawford’s added 7.5 sacks. Buffalo’s defense has combined for 30 sacks and 12 interceptions as well on the year.
Why the Buffalo Bulls will win
- Buffalo has won each of its last four games.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Buffalo has covered the spread in each of its last three Bowl games.
Liberty Recap
The Liberty Flames had a decent second season in C-USA, finishing the year 8-3 overall and 5-3 in conference play. It will be Liberty’s 6th straight bowl appearance as the Flames will be looking for their first bowl win since 2021 in the LendingTree Bowl.
Flames Hit Hard By Absences
The Flames most notable absences from this game, will be starting QB Kaidon Salter, who has signed with Colorado to battle JuJu Lewis for the QB1 job in Boulder, as well as starting RB Quinton Cooley, who has opted out of the game as has starting LB Jerome Jolly Jr. The Flames also lose two starters on the offensive line in starting LG Jordan White who has committed to Vanderbilt, and starting RT Xavior Gray, who has committed to Northwestern. Ryan Burger will likely get the start at QB for Liberty and head coach Jamey Chadwell has stated that players who hit the portal won’t play in the bowl game.
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Buffalo has lost six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
- Liberty has covered the spread in each of its last nine games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Liberty's last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of Buffalo's last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Buffalo vs. Liberty Prediction
I’m on Buffalo here. It’s just a rare circumstance where you get a team that didn’t really get affected by the portal come in with a pretty much clean report. Liberty gets a bowl game in the Bahamas, but one really has to wonder where their heads are at in this game after a frustrating end to the season and likely bigger aspirations than the Bahamas Bowl. I think Buffalo comes in and gets the job done and takes advantage of the situation that Liberty’s in so give me the Bulls in this one.
Chris’s Pick Buffalo -3.5
AUTHOR: Chris Ruffolo
