Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Prediction College Football Picks 11/9/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New Mexico State Aggies

Recent betting trends in games played between Western Kentucky and New Mexico State

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State game

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

The Hilltoppers’ season kicked off with a loss to Alabama before wins over Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, and Toledo. Following another loss to Boston College, the Hilltoppers beat UTEP, Sam Houston, and Kennesaw State in their next trio.

Back on October 30 in the Kennesaw State matchup, the Hilltoppers scored 21 points in the first quarter and cruised to a 31-14 win. Caden Veltkamp ended up with 276 pass yards with three scores. Elijah Young was the top rusher with 15 carries for 114 yards.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

Over on the New Mexico State side, they beat Southeast Missouri State in their opener before a lengthy losing streak versus Liberty, Fresno State, Sam Houston, New Mexico, and Jacksonville State. The Aggies would beat LA Tech but then fell to FIU in their next game.

Matched up against FIU last Tuesday, the Aggies were blown out 27-7 in the second half during a 34-13 defeat. Mike Washington (88 yards; TD) and Seth McGowan (65 yards) did most of the offensive work on the ground.

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• New Mexico State has won each of its last four November games as an underdog.
• New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last seven games against conference opponents at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
• Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four road games in November.

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win

• Western Kentucky has won nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico State has lost six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Western Kentucky has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven November games as a home underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Each of New Mexico State's last four games as an underdog has gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Western Kentucky's last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks T131st among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (7.8).
• New Mexico State ranks 131st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (283.6).
• Western Kentucky ranks T19th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+4.8).
• Western Kentucky ranks T21st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (4.4).

Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Prediction

I’ll stick with Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers didn’t have a ton of issues with a struggling Kennesaw State team in their last game, despite going just 3-of-9 on third downs. WKU notched 462 offensive yards (276 passing) in that one with 8.0 yards per play and 24 first downs. It shouldn’t be a whole lot tougher to hang points on New Mexico State here.

Speaking of the Aggies, they posted just 30 pass yards (246 total) and went 3-of-12 on third downs in their latest loss to FIU. Having a home game this weekend (plus some extra time to prepare) should help New Mexico, but I don’t think they’ll cover if WKU plays well.