Texas State vs Sam Houston Prediction College Football Picks 9/28/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Texas State Bobcats

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Sam Houston State Bearkats

Recent betting trends in games played between Texas State and Sam Houston

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Texas State vs Sam Houston game

Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview

In their first matchup of the 2024 season, the Bobcats took on the Lamar Cardinals. Texas State got through that one with a close win 34-27. Game two wasn’t as close but still ended up a win as the Bobcats dispatched UTSA 49-10 to start at 2-0.

Back on September 12 versus Arizona State, the Bobcats took their first loss of the year. Texas State kept pace for the first three quarters but eventually fell 31-28. QB Jordan McCloud logged 268 yards and four scores. Jaden Williams caught two of those TDs on four receptions for 75 yards.

Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Preview

Over on the Bearkats’ side, they managed to start their season at 2-1. The loss came in game two as Sam Houston fell to UCF 45-14. Otherwise, the Bearkats beat Rice 34-14 in their opener and Hawaii 31-13 in game three.

Last weekend versus New Mexico State the Bearkats jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead and ended up winning 31-11. Hunter Watson threw for just 64 yards and two picks but led the rushing attack on 12 carries for 116 yards and two scores.

Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win

• Texas State has lost 10 of its last 12 games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Sam Houston State has won four of its last five games.
• Sam Houston State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.

Why the Texas State Bobcats will win

• Texas State has won five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
• Texas State has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas State has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
• Texas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Sam Houston State's last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of Texas State's last four games against opponents from the Conference USA have gone UNDER the total points line.

Texas State vs Sam Houston Prediction

I’ll probably stick with Texas State. The Bobcats posted a respectable effort against a pretty good Arizona State team in their last outing, bagging 400 total yards (268 passing), 21 first downs, and 8-of-17 on third-down tries. Texas State posted three turnovers, however, along with eight penalties for 69 yards.

As for Sam Houston, they played fairly well on offense against New Mexico State despite just 102 passing yards and a pair of interceptions. The Bearkats kept their drives going (36:38 in time of possession) and relied on the defense the rest of the way. It’ll be interesting to see how they match up here, but overall I think Texas State has the better cover shot.