New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction College Football Picks 9/28/24

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

The New Mexico State Aggies recently lost to Fresno State and Sam Houston, and play Jacksonville State next. New Mexico State has won 6 of its last 7 road games. Parker Awad is completing 36.4 percent of his passes for 243 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Monte Watkins and TJ Pride have combined for 129 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while PJ Johnson III has 4 receptions.

The New Mexico State Aggies ground game is averaging 120.5 yards per contest, and Seth McGowan leads the way with 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico State is allowing 31.3 points and 433 yards per game. Tyler Martinez leads the New Mexico State Aggies with 24 tackles, Buddha Peleti has 2.5 sacks and Josiah Cox has 2 interceptions.

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• New Mexico State has lost 18 of its last 19 September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has won each of New Mexico's last five games.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico has covered the spread in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of New Mexico's last five road games in September has gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of New Mexico State's last seven home games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (88.3).
• New Mexico State ranks T127th among FBS teams for points per game this season (14.5).
• New Mexico ranks T133rd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (24.0).
• New Mexico ranks 131st among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (510.5).

New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction

I'm not running to the window to back the New Mexico State Aggies, but they're at home and this is a rivalry game. While the more talented side, it does feel strange to lay nearly double-digit chalk with New Mexico. Also, speaking of rivalries, I don't think it's a coincidence that the underdog has covered 8 of the last 9 games between New Mexico and New Mexico State. The New Mexico Lobos haven't shown anything on the defensive side. Give me the Aggies and the free points.