BYU vs Baylor Prediction College Football Picks 9/28/24

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the BYU Cougars

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baylor Bears

Recent betting trends in games played between BYU and Baylor

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the BYU vs Baylor game

BYU Cougars Betting Preview

The Cougars began the 2024 season with a nice series of wins. First came an opener matchup versus Southern Illinois. BYU won that one easily 41-13, then eked out a road win versus SMU 18-15. In game three the Cougars kept it going with a 34-14 victory over Wyoming.

Matched up against Kansas State last weekend, the Cougars were up 31-9 by the fourth quarter and finished with a 38-9 victory. Jake Retzlaff logged 149 pass yards and two TDs. Chase Roberts topped the receivers on two catches for 47 yards and a touchdown.

Baylor Bears Betting Preview

Over on the Baylor side, they didn’t have any issues with Tarleton State in their first outing of the year. The Bears took that one 45-3. Baylor would notch their first loss versus Utah 23-12 in game two but came back to beat Air Force 31-3 the next week.

In their matchup with Colorado, the Bears were outscored 14-7 in the second half and eventually lost in overtime 38-31. QB Sawyer Robinson logged 148 yards and a pair of passing scores while also leading the rush with 82 yards and a TD off nine totes.

Why the Baylor Bears will win

• The favorite has won each of Baylor's last seven games.
• BYU has lost five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in six of Baylor's last seven games.
• BYU has lost the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.

Why the BYU Cougars will win

• Baylor has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
• BYU has won 13 of its last 14 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• BYU has covered the spread in each of its last six games.
• Baylor has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
• Baylor has lost the first half in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Baylor's last four games as a favorite has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of BYU's last six September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

BYU vs Baylor Prediction

I’ll stick with BYU but you could make a case either way. The Cougars got their win over Kansas State with some opportunistic defense, giving up 367 yards (139 passing) and 17 first downs while posting three takeaways. The offense was just good enough on 241 yards (149 passing), 14 first downs, and zero turnovers. I’d like to see some more encouraging numbers from that unit this weekend.

As for Baylor, they had a tepid offensive outing themselves versus Colorado, logging 314 total yards (148 passing) and 15 first downs. The Bears gave up 432 yards on the other side (341 passing) with 24 first downs in a game they should have won. Baylor should be able to bounce back this weekend but I like BYU to power out a cover if all goes well.