Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Prediction 9/17/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Portland Fire meet Thursday in WNBA action from the Moda Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire prediction.

Matchup History

The Portland Fire won the most recent meeting between these two teams by a final score of 88-85 back on August 16th, 2026, splitting the regular season meetings between these two teams at 1-1. 

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 101-69 win over Toronto last time out to sit at 14-26 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Dallas Wings.

Mercury Snap Four-Game Slide

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 21.3 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.2 PPG with a team-high 7.7 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead Phoenix in rebounding and assists so far this season. Two more Mercury players average double figures in scoring as well this season including DeWanna Bonner who has 10.6 PPG with 6.1 RPG, and Jovana Nogic who adds 10.4 PPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack has chipped in 8.4 PPG with 6.8 RPG as well for the Mercury this season.

Portland Fire Recap

The Portland Fire come into this game looking to rebound from their 86-69 loss at the hands of the Golden State Valkyries last time out to sit at 16-24 this season. After this game, the Fire will have their rematch against the Valkyries on the road.

Fire Lose 4 Of Last 5

Carla Leite leads the Fire in scoring with 15.9 PPG along with 2.1 RPG and a team-high 6.3 APG while Bridget Carleton has added 14.3 PPG with 4.5 RPG and 2.2 APG. Three more Fire players average double figures in scoring as well this season including Megan DiLeo who has 13.2 PPG with 4.2 RPG, Sarah Ashlee Barker with 10.7 PPG and 4.5 RPG, and Emily Engstler who has 10.0 PPG with a team-high 5.6 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Portland so far this season. Frieda Buhner also has 6.3 PPG with 2.2 RPG as well for the Fire up to this point in the year.

Phoenix Mercury @ Portland Fire Betting Trends: September 17, 2026

Why the Portland Fire will win

• The Fire have won each of their last four night games against Western Conference opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mercury have lost five of their last six games following a home win.
• The Fire have covered the spread in seven of their last eight night games at Moda Center.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five night games following a home win.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The road team has won five of the Mercury’s last six games.
• The Fire have lost five of their last six home games against Western Conference opponents.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Mercury’s last four games.
• The Fire have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Mercury’s last 10 road games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Fire’s last five games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Portland Fire Player Facts

• Karlie Samuelson has recorded the most field goal attempts without being blocked (98) of any player in the league this season.
• Emily Engstler is one of only two players in the league to have recorded 4+ blocks in consecutive games this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.4) this season.
• Noemie Brochant has recorded 4+ steals + blocks in each of her last one games – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Portland Fire rank 14th for free throw attempts per game this season (18.1).
• The Portland Fire rank 14th for rebound percentage this season (47.0%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for blocks per game this season (3.3).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goal attempts per game this season (65.6).

Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire Prediction

I’m on the Fire here. I just can’t get over how disappointing Phoenix has been this season and I’m not willing to just blindly forget about that down the stretch. I think Portland’s a solid team that wants to build positive vibes going into next season and I think that the Fire get it done in this one. Give me Portland.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Portland +2.5