Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx meet Sunday in WNBA Semifinal playoff action from the Target Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx prediction.

Matchup History

The Minnesota Lynx won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on July 16th, 2025, making it 7 wins for the Lynx in the last 8 head-to-head meetings and giving Minnesota the win in the season series.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this series fresh off of dethroning the New York Liberty, knocking out the defending champs with a 79-73 win over New York in the all-deciding game three last time out.

Mercury Looking To Slay Another Beast In Semifinals

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Minnesota Lynx Recap

The Minnesota Lynx come into this series as the top seed and looked every bit the part, knocking down the upstart Golden State Valkyries in a sweep thanks to a 75-74 win in game two last time out.

Lynx Looking To Finish The Job 

Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx in scoring with 23.4 PPG along with 7.7 RPG and 3.3 APG while Courtney Williams has added 13.9 PPG with 4.9 RPG and a team-high 6.3 APG to lead the Lynx in the assist department. Kayla McBride’s logged 15.1 PPG and 3.5 APG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Minnesota up to this point in the season. Alanna Smith’s added 9.9 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 2.8 APG and Natisha Hiedeman has 7.8 PPG with 2.6 APG so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends: September 21, 2025

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last 14 games at Target Center against Lynx teams that held a winning record.
• The Lynx have won each of their last 10 home games against the Mercury.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in each of their last seven games at Target Center against Mercury teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Target Center following a home win.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Mercury’s last four Semi-Finals games.
• The Lynx have lost 12 of their last 16 day games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in seven of their last eight Semi-Finals games as underdogs.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Sunday day games at Target Center.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last six road games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Ten of the last 11 day games between the Lynx and Mercury have gone UNDER the total points line.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Napheesa Collier ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for points per game (22.9) this season.
• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction

I’m on the Lynx here. Until I have a reason to think otherwise, the Lynx and the Aces are still the best teams in the WNBA and more often than not put the boots to the Mercury in regular season. I think the Lynx get it done to draw first blood in the series. Give me the Lynx.