Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Prediction 8/5/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Atlanta Dream meet Wednesday in WNBA action from the Gateway Center Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream prediction.

Matchup History

The Atlanta Dream won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on May 24th, 2026, by a final score of 82-80, making it four straight wins for the Dream in this head-to-head matchup.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 106-101 win over the Chicago Sky last time out to improve to 12-19 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Connecticut Sun.

Mercury Win 4 Of Last 5

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.9 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.9 PPG with 7.1 RPG and a team-high 8.3 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and DeWanna Bonner has 10.2 PPG with 5.8 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 8.8 PPG with 7.4 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.

Atlanta Dream Recap

The Atlanta Dream come into this game looking to shake off a 109-87 loss at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces last time out to sit at 18-11 this season. After this game, the Dream will head on the road for a game against the Washington Mystics.

Dream Have Five-Game Win Streak Snapped

Allisha Gray has 19.2 PPG along with 3.1 RPG while Jordin Canada has 11.3 PPG with 3.7 RPG and 7.7 APG to lead the Dream in assists. Rhyne Howard has 16.9 PPG with 3.9 RPG and 3.5 APG and Angel Reese has 15.8 PPG with 11.6 RPG to lead the Dream in rebounding by averaging a double-double per game and rounding out the group of double-digit scorers for Atlanta so far this season. Naz Hillmon also has 9.3 PPG with 4.4 RPG as well on the year.

Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream Betting Trends: August 5, 2026

Why the Atlanta Dream will win

• The Dream have won each of their last seven home games following a home loss.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last five road games against Dream teams that held a winning record.
• The Dream have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games against Dream teams that held a winning record.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Dream and Mercury.
• The Dream have lost four of their last six games as favorites after losing as favorites.
• The Dream have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Dream’s last seven games at Gateway Center Arena.

Total Points Facts

• Eleven of the Dream’s last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last five night games have gone OVER the total points line.

Atlanta Dream Player Facts

• Jordin Canada is the only player in the league to have recorded 7+ steals in a game this season.
• Angel Reese has recorded 10+ rebounds in three consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.4) this season.
• DeWanna Bonner has recorded 7+ rebounds in four consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for opponent rebounds per game this season (29.8).
• The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for offensive rebounds per game this season (11.2).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point percentage this season (36.8%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent free throw percentage this season (80.3%).

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction

I’m on the Dream laying the points here. Atlanta has burned a hole in people’s pockets this season laying points, but I think this is a situation where they’re favored by this much for a reason. I think people see the run the Mercury are on since the all-star break and the addition of Kelsey Plum and see dollar signs, but this is a Dream team that is still very talented offensively and I look for them to take care of business here. Give me the Dream.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Atlanta -6.5