Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 9/24/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury meet Thursday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Matchup History

The Las Vegas Aces won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on July 11th, 2026, by a final score of 106-58, making it back-to-back wins for the Aces in this head-to-head matchup.

Las Vegas Aces Recap

The Las Vegas Aces come into this game looking to add on to their 89-79 win over the Sparks last time out to sit at 30-13 this season. 

Aces Win 6 Straight

A’ja Wilson leads the Aces in scoring with 26.0 PPG along with a team-high 9.4 RPG and 3.2 APG so far this season. Three more Aces players average double figures in scoring as well this season including Jackie Young who has 18.9 PPG with 4.4 RPG and 6.6 APG, Chelsea Gray with 12.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and a team-high 6.8 APG, and NaLyssa Smith who adds 11.7 PPG with 6.4 RPG to cap off the primary double-digit scorers for Las Vegas up to this point in the year. Jewell Loyd also has 7.7 PPG with 2.3 RPG for the Aces this season.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 87-86 win over the Wings last time out to sit at 16-27 this season.

Mercury Win 3 Of Last 4

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 21.3 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.2 PPG with a team-high 7.7 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead Phoenix in rebounding and assists so far this season. Two more Mercury players average double figures in scoring as well this season including DeWanna Bonner who has 10.6 PPG with 6.1 RPG, and Jovana Nogic who adds 10.4 PPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack has chipped in 8.4 PPG with 6.8 RPG as well for the Mercury this season.

Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 24, 2026

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won four of their last five games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four road games.

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won each of their last 21 night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last eight games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Aces have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against the Mercury.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Aces’ last seven games at Mortgage Matchup Center following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last four home games against the Aces following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.5) this season.
• Kahleah Copper has made 3+ free throws in 12 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (26.0) this season.
• Jackie Young ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FT% (92.8%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (9.7).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank T14th for field goal attempts per game this season (65.5).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for blocks per game this season (4.9).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.4).

Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m on the Aces here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but the thing here is that the Aces are still fighting for the two seed and these games have not been close this season between these two teams. I’m looking for the Aces to wallop the Mercury and send Phoenix back packing. Give me the Aces.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Las Vegas -10.5