Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 7/9/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Indiana Fever and the Phoenix Mercury meet Thursday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Matchup History

The Phoenix Mercury won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on June 24th, 2026, by a final score of 111-109 to make it 3 wins in the last 4 meetings for the Mercury in this head-to-head matchup.

Indiana Fever Recap

The Indiana Fever come into this game looking to rebound from their 106-92 loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Sparks to sit at 12-9 this season. After this game, the Fever will head on the road for a game against the Las Vegas Aces.

Fever Split Last 8 Games

Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring with 21.6 PPG along with 2.6 APG while Caitlin Clark has 21.2 PPG with 4 RPG and a team-high 8.2 APG to lead the Fever in assists. Aliyah Boston also has 17 PPG with 8.6 RPG and 2.9 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for the Fever so far this season. Sophie Cunningham has 9.6 PPG with 2.6 RPG and Monique Billings also has 6.8 PPG with 5.1 RPG this season.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from a 77-68 loss at the hands of the Chicago Sky last time out to sit at 8-14 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Aces as well.

Mercury Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped 

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.5 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.4 PPG with 6.9 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Monique Akoa Makani has 9.6 PPG with 2.4 RPG and 2.8 APG and Natasha Mack also has 9.2 PPG with 8.3 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.

Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: July 9, 2026

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Fever have lost each of their last 10 night games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
• The Mercury have won 12 of their last 13 night games against the Fever at Mortgage Matchup Center.
• The Fever have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The favorites have covered the spread in five of the Mercury’s last six games at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Why the Indiana Fever will win

• The Mercury have lost four of their last five games as favorites after losing as favorites.
• The underdogs have won three of the Fever’s last four games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven night games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
• The Fever have covered the spread in four of their last five games after losing as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Mercury’s last 10 games as home favorites following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Fever’s last eight games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Kahleah Copper has scored 20+ points in five consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
• DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 46 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (24.7%) this season.

Indiana Fever Player Facts

• Kelsey Mitchell has scored 20+ points in five consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
• The Indiana Fever averages 95.2 points per 40 minutes while Lexie Hull is on the floor this season – highest mark of any qualified player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point percentage this season (36.9%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for second chance points per game (9.9) this season.
• The Indiana Fever rank 1st for points per game this season (93.4).
• The Indiana Fever rank 1st for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (6.7).

Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m backing Phoenix here. I think the Mercury are just the team in better form right now and we’re seeing Indiana on a true back-to-back here which is never an easy thing to deal with. Indiana didn’t look very good in the first half of the back-to-back and I think Phoenix gets it done at home here. Give me the Mercury.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Phoenix -1.5