Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 7/19/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Connecticut Sun and the Phoenix Mercury meet Friday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Matchup History

The Connecticut Sun won the most recent meeting between these two teams on Friday by a final score of 96-83, making it back-to-back wins for Connecticut in this head-to-head matchup and 7 wins in the last 9 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Connecticut Sun Recap

The Connecticut Sun come into this game looking to add on to their win over Phoenix last time out to sit at 7-18 this season. After this game, Connecticut will head on the road for a game against the Indiana Fever.

Sun Win Back-To-Back Games

Aneesah Morrow is averaging 10.5 PPG and 9.4 RPG while Brittney Griner has 13.8 PPG with 5.7 RPG and Leila Lacan has 13.3 PPG with 4.6 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Connecticut so far this season. Aaliyah Edwards has added 9.9 PPG with 4 RPG and Olivia Nelson-Ododa also has 9.2 PPG with 5.6 RPG as well this season. Diamond Miller also has 8.6 PPG with 2.3 RPG as well this season.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Sun on Friday to fall to 8-18 on the year. After this game, the Mercury will take to the road for a game against the Los Angeles Sparks.

Mercury Drop 5th In A Row

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.6 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.5 PPG with 6.9 RPG and a team-high 8 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 10 PPG with 2.7 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 9.2 PPG with 8.3 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.

Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: July 19, 2026

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Sun have lost each of their last eight games against Western Conference opponents after winning as underdogs.
• The Mercury have won eight of their last 10 day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Sun have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against the Mercury after winning as underdogs.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games as home favorites following a home loss.

Why the Connecticut Sun will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last three games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The road team has won five of the Sun’s last six games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a losing record.
• The Sun have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Sun’s last six games as road underdogs following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Nine of the Mercury’s last 10 games as home favorites following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.0) this season.
• DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 49 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (23.7%) this season.

Connecticut Sun Player Facts

• Leila Lacan has recorded at least 1 steal in 19 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Charlisse Leger-Walker has recorded five games with 3+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point percentage this season (37.3%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent free throw percentage this season (80.3%).
• The Connecticut Sun rank 14th for points per game this season (80.4).
• The Connecticut Sun rank 14th for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (24.2).

Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m on the Sun here. I know it’s hard to envision Connecticut stringing wins together, but the Mercury haven’t really done anything to justify being favored against anyone right now. Phoenix had a nice run of form to get themselves back on track a little while ago, but it’s back to being the struggling team living off of the glory of last year’s finals run. Connecticut’s not going to have many spots like this the rest of the way and I think the Sun take advantage with a cover at the very least.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Connecticut +3.5