Wuhan Prediction: Sabalenka vs Pegula 10/11/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face sixth seed Jessica Pegula in the semifinal of the 2025 Wuhan Open. The match is scheduled for Saturday, October 11. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula pick.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Preview

Aryna Sabalenka beat Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals to stay perfect in Wuhan. This was her 20th win without defeat in the tournament, putting her name up there with some of the legends of women’s tennis for winning 20 or more matches at a single event without a loss.

Sabalenka got a measure of revenge after losing to the Kazakh in Cincinnati a few months back, but she made sure that result did not affect her. Sabalenka won the first set with a late break at 5-3 and held serve in her next game. The Belarusian had the perfect start to the second set, breaking Rybakina twice to lead 4-1.

While Sabalenka dropped her serve for the first time and lost her huge advantage, it was only for a short period as she broke to win the match late on. In total, Sabalenka spent an hour and 26 minutes, hitting two aces and 5 double faults in the match. She landed 60% of first serves in play and won 79% of first serve points (27/34). Sabalenka won 48% of second serve points (11/23) and saved two of three break points.

Jessica Pegula earned a three-set win over Czech qualifier Katerina Siniakova in the quarterfinals to reach her first semifinal in Wuhan. Pegula dropped the first set 6-2 in 32 minutes, but gave away only three games in the next two sets to complete a 2-6, 6-0, 6-3 comeback victory.

Pegula did not account for any aces but hit 1 double fault. She landed 67% of first serves in play and won 78% of first serve points (35/45). Pegula won 45% of second serve points (10/22) and saved five of seven break points. This was her 50th win in 70 matches this season.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Pegula have met 10 times at all levels. The World No. 1 holds an 8-2 head-to-head record and has triumphed in both meetings in 2025 on hard courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction

In any other event, Pegula’s chances of causing an upset would probably be a lot better, but certainly not in Wuhan, where Sabalenka has made this tournament a fortress. She is 20-0 and I don’t see the irrepressible Sabalenka losing this one in the manner she’s been playing this week.