Sabalenka vs Gauff Prediction 3/28/2026 – Miami Open Final Preview & Picks

Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will face off the 2026 WTA Miami Open final. The match is scheduled for Saturday, March 28. Here’s our Sabalenka vs Gauff prediction. This preview will also include a Sabalenka vs Gauff pick.

Sabalenka vs Gauff Preview

Aryna Sabalenka beat Elena Rybakina in straight sets in the semifinals of the Miami Open. It was a rematch of the Indian Wells and Sabalenka came out victorious yet again, but this time, in a more straightforward manner. The match took 19 games to decide. Sabalenka prevailed 6-4, 6-3 in 80 minutes of playing time.

Sabalenka won the first set by breaking Rybakina’s serve twice. She raced to a 4-0 lead in the second set, and although Rybakina retrieved one of the breaks back, Sabalenka did not surrender that lead and held to love in the final game to reach a second successive Miami Open final.

Sabalenka has beaten everyone in her path during the fortnight without losing a single set. Her victims include Ann  Li, Caty McNally, Qinwen Zheng, and Hailey Baptiste, before adding Rybakina to that list. Sabalenka is now 22-1 for the season and is gunning for her third title of the season.

Coco Gauff reached her maiden Miami Open final thanks to a dominant win over Karolina Muchova. Owning a 100% perfect record against the Czech, Gauff made sure her excellent record against Muchova remained intact and only lost two games in an hour and 30 minutes of tennis.

In the victory, Gauff won 77% of first serve points (27/35) and 35% of second serve points (7/20). She saved 7 out of 8 break points on her serve. Gauff won 59% of return points in the match and broke Muchova’s serve six times. Four of Gauff’s five matches in the tournament lasted three sets. Gauff improves to 16-5 for the season and is chasing her first title of 2026. Before this week, she had never made it past the round of 16 in Miami.

Sabalenka’s path to the final

First round: Bye
Second round: def. Ann Li 7-6 (5), 6-4
Third round: def. Caty McNally 6-4, 6-2
Fourth round: def. Zheng Qinwen 6-3, 6-4
Quarterfinals: def. Hailey Baptiste 6-4, 6-4
Semifinals: def. Elena Rybakina 6-4, 6-3

Gauff’s path to the final

First round: Bye
Second round: def. Elisabetta Cocciaretto 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
Third round: def. Alycia Parks 3-6, 6-0, 6-1
Fourth round: def. Sorana Cirstea 6-4, 3-6 6-2
Quarterfinals: def. Belinda Bencic 6-3, 1-6, 6-3
Semifinals: def. Karolina Muchova 6-1, 6-1

Sabalenka vs Gauff Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Gauff have met 12 times. The head-to-head is finely poised at 6-6. They played three times in 2025. Sabalenka won two meetings, on clay in Madrid and at the WTA Finals. But Gauff won the match that mattered most in the French Open final to win her second Grand Slam last June.

Sabalenka vs Gauff Prediction

It’s fitting that we have a top five showdown to decide the women’s final at the Miami Open. Sabalenka has been the dominant player without a doubt. She’s cruised in most of her matches and has not lost a set. Gauff, meanwhile, has gone the distance in four of the five matches, the exception being the semifinal win over Muchova.

That said, the angle we are looking at here is the Gauff set handicap +1.5 and the American only needs to win a set, which at current odds of -119 is extremely generous. Gauff’s brilliant defense and ability to extend rallies force Sabalenka to hit one extra ball and she’s the kind of problem that Sabalenka hardly faces from earlier in the tournament. Our Sabalenka vs Gauff prediction is for Gauff to win at least a set.

Nur Said's Pick: Gauff set handicap +1.5 @ -119