Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Prediction ATP Monte Carlo Picks

Matteo Berrettini will face Joao Fonseca in the last 16 of the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Masters on Thursday, April 9. Here’s our Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca prediction. This preview will also include a Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca pick.

Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Preview

Matteo Berrettini handed Daniil Medvedev the worst loss of his career in the last round as the Italian demolished the former World No. 1 6-0, 6-0 in under an hour. For all Medvedev’s documented disdain for the surface, none could fathom the manner of result as the Russian failed to hold his serve in the entire match and only manufactured two break point chances on the Berrettini serve and didn’t convert any.

For Berrettini, this was close to a perfect performance, winning 73% of first serve points (16/22) and 83% of second serve points (10/12) without hammering a single ace in the match. Before this round, Berrettini earned a retirement win over Roberto Bautista Agut while the score was 4-0 in his favor.

That means in two matches, Berrettini has not lost a game in Monte Carlo this week. He had never progressed beyond the last 16 in this tournament in each of his five previous appearances. Will that record change on Thursday?

Joao Fonseca is having a fine debut appearance in Monte Carlo. The Brazilian wunderkind started with a clinical straight-sets win over Canada’s Gabriel Diallo. In the second round, Fonseca faced some stern resistance from France’s World No. 27 Arthur Rinderknech but prevailed in three sets. The match took 31 games to decide. Fonseca won 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 in two hours and 33 minutes.

In the victory, Fonseca hit 3 aces and 3 double faults. Fonseca landed 68% of first serves in play and won 70% of first serve points (50/71). Fonseca won 58% of second serve points (19/33) and saved 10 of 12 break points. He improves to 7-5 for the season and is now 3-2 on clay. He will seek a first quarterfinal of the season.

Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Head-To-Head

Berrettini leads the head-to-head 1-0. He defeated Fonseca in straight sets in a Davis Cup match two years ago.

Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Prediction

There is massive value on Berrettini, who is coming off that absurd result against Medvedev, but the books are not overreacting here and still have the Italian as the underdog at plus odds. Fonseca profiles as the more stable baseliner, but is still prone to inconsistency and lapses and gave away as many as 12 break point chances against Rinderknech. That said, Berrettini has the higher peak when that serve and forehand is firing, and from his last outing, that is the case. Give me Berrettini

Nur Said's Pick: Matteo Berrettini in three sets