Japan Open Prediction: Alcaraz vs Fritz 9/30/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will face second seed Taylor Fritz in the final of the 2025 Japan Open in Tokyo. The match is scheduled for Tuesday, September 30. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Preview

Carlos Alcaraz reached the final of the Japan Open in his debut appearance at the ATP 500 event. The Spaniard is coming off a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over fourth seed Casper Ruud. Alcaraz missed out on four break point chances in the first set, which Ruud deservedly won by playing clutch tennis and taking advantage of the top seed’s limited movement. But Alcaraz hit nine aces and won 16 out of 19 first serve points in the second set where he broke Ruud’s serve once to level the match.

Alcaraz’s serve was equally as good in the third set, where he saved two break points and broke Ruud twice to seal the comeback victory. Alcaraz had beaten Sebastian Baez, Zizou Bergs and Brandon Nakashima before this, without losing a set. This will be Alcaraz’s 10th final of the season. He already leads the tour with the most titles won, with seven. He only lost to Holger Rune in Barcelona and Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon.

Taylor Fritz reached his second career final in Tokyo and his first since 2022, when he won the title. Fritz overcame countryman Jenson Brooksby for the third time this season in the first semifinal of the day at the Japan Open. The match took 19 games to decide. Fritz hammered 13 aces past Brooksby and landed 74% of first serves in play. He won 85% of first serve points (39/46) and 44% of second serve points (7/16). Fritz saved two break points in the match.

Before this round, Fritz defeated Gabriel Diallo in three sets to kick off the tournament. Then he took Nuno Borges in straight sets and Sebastian Korda in three sets. Fritz is on a six-match winning streak. In that run, he beat Carlos Alcaraz at the Laver Cup. Fritz is chasing his 11th career title on the ATP tour.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Head-To-Head

Alcaraz and Fritz have met four times at all levels. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 3-1, but Fritz picked up his first win over the Spaniard at the Laver Cup in San Francisco. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Fritz will like his chances here. Fresh from beating Alcaraz at the Laver Cup for the first time, he’s shown admirable fighting skills in the first week, where he escaped with three-set wins over Diallo and Korda. He’ll be up against Alcaraz, who just dropped his first set of the tournament in the semifinal, and who has had to limit his movement in between some points because of the ankle injury he sustained earlier in the tournament. That said, Alcaraz will still be the favorite, and if he can continue to move fluidly, he should have this match firmly under control.