Holger Rune vs Jack Draper Prediction 3/16/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Holger Rune and Jack Draper clash in the final of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Sunday, March 16, 2025. Here’s our Holger Rune vs Jack Draper prediction. This article will also include a Holger Rune vs Jack Draper pick.

Holger Rune Preview

Holger Rune is coming off a straight sets win over last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev. The match took 22 games to decide. Rune prevailed 7-5, 6-4 in an hour and 40 minutes. In the victory, Rune hit 20 winners and 28 unforced errors including one ace and two double faults.

Rune landed 67% of first serves in play and won 72% of first serve points (34/47). The Dane tallied 61% of second serve points (14/23) and saved one of two break points. Rune won 40% of return points (24/60) and 70% of net points (7/10). He broke Medvedev’s serve thre times in the match.

It’s Rune’s first final on the ATP Tour since January 2024 when he lost the title match in Adelaide to Grigor Dimitrov. This is also his first Masters 1000 final since Rome 2023. He has triumphed at this level before, stunning Novak Djokovic to win Paris-Bercy in 2022.

Rune owns five Tour-level titles, but none has been on an outdoor hard court.

Jack Draper Preview

Jack Draper pulled off the biggest shock of the tournament by knocking out two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. The match took 23 games to decide and lasted an hour and 45 minutes. Draper prevailed by the peculiar scoreline of 6-1, 0-6, 6-4.

It’s Draper’s second victory over Alcaraz in the head-to-head and incidentally, with the Spaniard being the defending champion of the event (also at Queen’s last season).

In the win, Draper hit 13 winners and 24 unforced errors including four aces and two double faults. The Briton landed 68% of first serves in play and won 64% of first serve points (30/47). Draper won 50% of second serve points (11/22) and saved five of nine break points. The 12th seed compiled 44% of return points and was almost perfect in net point conversion (6/8). He broke Alcaraz four times in the match.

Draper has now won 12 of 14 matches this season, with only one completed defeat (he retired in his other loss to Alcaraz at the Australian Open). Draper will contest his first final at a Masters 1000 in Indian Wells. He is a two-time champion on the ATP Tour.

Holger Rune vs Jack Draper Head-To-Head

• Rune and Draper have met once on the ATP Tour.

• Rune beat Draper in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Cincinnati Open in straight sets.

Holger Rune vs Jack Draper Prediction

Rune will have some comfort in owning a precious head-to-head win over Draper in their only ATP meeting on U.S. soil. But that’s not a relevant sample size to draw any conclusions for this match. The conditions are entirely different in Indian Wells as is Draper’s form. Not many people would be predicting the outcome with the highest degree of confidence.

Draper is having an excellent season and he’s only played three tournaments. He reached the second week of the Australian Open and it was only because of injury he couldn’t finish his fourth-round match. He has since reached back-to-back finals (lost the Doha final). His two losses this season have been against top 10 players, so he’s no slouch and will demand the best tennis from the elite players. Rune is a spot above Draper in the rankings and didn’t have a productive spell after Melbourne, winning only two matches in February. But his performances throughout the two weeks probably just give him the edge here (beating Tsitsipas, Griekspoor, and Medvedev). He’s marginally the better defender and robust mover. It’s wise to go with the games for a safer pick. That said, I’ll lean slightly toward the Dane.