Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Prediction 07/26/2025 Washington Picks

Third seed Elena Rybakina will face Canada’s Leylah Fernandez in the semifinal of the 2025 Washington Open. The match is scheduled for Saturday, July 26. Here’s our Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez prediction. This preview will also include an Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez pick.

Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Preview

Third seed Elena Rybakina reached her third hard-court semifinal of the season. She lost her first two in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, but it will be interesting to see if she can eradicate those two mishaps here at the Washington Open. This is Rybakina’s debut appearance at the event, and she has looked in impressive form. After a first-round bye, Rybakina kicked off the tournament, dismissing Canadian teenager Victoria Mboko 6-3, 7-5 in an hour and 26 minutes. 

In the quarterfinal, Rybakina knocked out Polish fifth seed Magdalena Frech, who had ousted Venus Williams the night before, in straight sets. Rybakina completed the win in 80 minutes. She hit seven aces and four double faults. Rybakina landed 64% of first serves in play and won 83% of first serve points (30/36). She won 55% of second serve points (11/20) and saved all three break points she faced in the match. Rybakina has one final appearance this season, which came in Strasbourg on clay. She won’t build on her ranking even if she won the tournament this week and will remain in the 12th spot.

Leylah Fernandez continues to record one statement win after another. The Canadian lefty began the tournament in Washington with a straight sets win over Australian teenager Maya Joint. But it was in the second round where Fernandez delivered one of the shocks of the tournament. She knocked out top seed Jessica Pegula in three sets, rallying from a break down to win the third set. 

In the quarterfinal, Fernandez beat new doubles No. 1 Taylor Townsend in two hours and 21 minutes. Fernandez nearly let slip a 5-2 lead in the first set, but closed it out in the end 6-4. The second set had all the drama, with Townsend breaking Fernandez at 3-4 and serving for the match. She held a set point, but could not convert and surrendered the break back for 5-all. After Townsend saved a match point to force a tie-break, it was Fernandez who eventually sealed victory. The former US Open finalist finished the match with five aces to five double faults. She landed 63% of first serves in play and won 64% of first serve points (28/44). Fernandez won 54% of second serve points (14/26) and saved three of seven break points. This will be her first semifinal of the season after two quarterfinal losses.

Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Head-To-Head

Rybakina and Fernandez have met twice on the WTA Tour, with both matches taking place on hard courts last season. Rybakina won in Dubai in straight sets, before Fernandez stunned the Kazakh in three sets in Cincinnati, saving two match points along the way.

Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Prediction

Fernandez is the type of player who would regularly punch above her weight and succeed when she’s slated as the underdog. She proved that last year up against Rybakina in Cincinnati and has done it this week by eliminating top seed Pegula. But context is important here. Rybakina was shaking off an illness at this time last year and was clearly under the weather in their match in Cincinnati, where Fernandez saved a couple of match points. A healthy Rybakina is a top 5 player, and on a hard court, she’s probably top three. Her upside is on another tier, and on these medium-paced courts in Washington with a predictable bounce, her ground strokes are difficult to contain. Expect the Kazakh to power into her second final of the season.