Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune Prediction 3/15/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune clash in the semifinal of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Saturday, March 15, 2025. Here’s our Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune prediction. This article will also include a Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune pick.

Daniil Medvedev Preview

Daniil Medvedev is coming off a dramatic three-set win over 20th seed Arthur Fils. Medvedev prevailed 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 in two hours and 26 minutes and the nature of his match-winning celebration was symbolic of his relief and excitement.

In the victory, Medvedev hit 17 winners and 30 unforced errors. That tally included five aces and three double faults. Medvedev landed 61% of first serves in play and won 63% of first serve points (34/54). The Russian fifth seed won 74% of second serve points (25/34) and saved four of eight break points. Medvedev won 38% of return points (40/106) and converted three of 11 break points in the match.

It is a third successive semifinal for Medvedev in Indian Wells. He lost two finals to Carlos Alcaraz. He improves to 12-5 for the season and can reach his first ATP final since the 2024 Indian Wells tournament.

Holger Rune Preview

Holger Rune ended the good run of Tallon Griekspoor in the quarterfinals. The Dane came from a set down to win in three sets. The match took 27 games to decide and lasted two hours and nine minutes. Rune prevailed 5-7, 6-0, 6-3.

In the victory, Rune hit 33 winners and 26 unforced errors. That tally included six aces, but zero double faults. Rune landed 69% of first serves in play and won 76% of first serve points (39/51). The 12th seed won 48% of second serve points (11/23) and saved one of four break points. Rune compiled 49% of return points (47/95) and broke Griekspoor six times.

Rune motors into his first semifinal of the season and first at Indian Wells. He also improves to 10-6 for the season.

Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune Head-To-Head

• Medvedev and Rune have met three times on the ATP Tour.

• Medvedev leads Rune 2-1 in the head-to-head.

• They haven’t played since the quarterfinals of this tournament last season. Medvedev won that one in two tight sets.

Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune Prediction

Medvedev is the most unpredictable Top 10 player right now which makes this one such a tough match to call. Whether it’s the tantrums, yelling at umpires, breaking his racket, or working up the crowd, you simply don’t know what you will get. Sometimes it’s the most inconceivable moments happening on the court that can rile him up. He’s also capable of playing top-tier tennis and this court profile is exactly what he loves. He’s made back-to-back finals in Indian Wells before. Still, I like Rune’s chances here.

The Dane has exceeded pre-tournament expectations here with his run to the semis, eating an in-form Tsitsipas and the resurgent Griekspoor. So, he’ll buoyed by those results. He will need to step though as Medvedev calls for commitment at every point and Rune will absolutely need to blast the balls with so much power and add a touch of variation to his game by going to the net more often. That said, this match is winnable for him.