Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper Prediction 3/15/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper clash in the semifinal of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Saturday, March 15, 2025. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper prediction. This article will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper pick.

Carlos Alcaraz Preview

Carlos Alcaraz kept his three-peat bid alive by reaching his fourth successive semifinal in Indian Wells. Alcaraz beat Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo in straight sets. He rallied from 1-4 down in the second set to prevail 6-3, 7-6.

The match lasted an hour and 45 minutes. In the victory, Alcaraz hit 23 winners and 27 unforced errors. That tally included five aces and five double faults. Alcaraz landed 66% of first serves in play and won 75% of first serve points (36/48).

The two-time defending champion won 60% of second serve points (15/25) and saved eight of nine break points. Alcaraz won 41% of return points (30/73) and 78% of net points (18/23) while breaking Cerundolo’s serve twice.

Alcaraz has reached the quarterfinals or better in all tournaments he has played in 2025. This is his second semifinal of the season after Rotterdam where he lifted his first indoor title in February. It is his 16th consecutive win at the desert and can join the famous company of Federer and Djokovic in winning three successive titles this weekend.

Jack Draper Preview

Jack Draper reached his first semifinal at Indian Wells in only his third main draw appearance. The British lefty defeated 11th seed Ben Shelton in straight sets. The match took 22 games to decide and lasted an hour and 41 minutes.

Draper hit 20 winners and nine unforced errors in a very dominant performance. That tally included three aces and one double fault. Draper landed 72% of first serves in play and won 67% of first serve points (33/49). The 13th seed won 74% of second serve points (14/19) and only faced one break point in the match.

Draper won the majority of the return points – 41% (31/75) and 73% of net points (11/15) and broke Shelton three times. Draper improves to 11-2 for the season. He has lost one completed match in 2025. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper Head-To-Head

• Alcaraz and Draper have met four times on the ATP Tour.

• Alcaraz leads Draper 3-1 although their most recent match at this year’s Australian Open ended in retirement because of the Briton’s injury.

• Before that, Draper earned his first win in the series by stunning the Spaniard at Queen’s last season.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper Prediction

Draper is decimating opponents this fortnight, but facing Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells is the ultimate challenge right now. The Spanish superstar is on a 16-match winning streak at the desert and has dropped just two sets since 2023. As immaculate as Draper has hit the ball in the tournament, Alcaraz still remains the man to beat and the bold move is going for another victory for the two-time defending champion with potentially one tie-break set.