Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils Doha Prediction 2/21/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz and Arthur Fils face off in the final of the 2026 Qatar Open in Doha. The match is scheduled for Saturday, February 21. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils Preview

Carlos Alcaraz secured a gripping straight-sets win over Andrey Rublev in the semifinals to keep his undefeated streak intact in Doha. The World No. 1 failed to serve for the opening set at 5-4 up and then 6-5 up,  and had his first set point saved by Rublev, who forced a tiebreak. But Alcaraz was not to be denied in the tiebreak, which he clinched 7-3. The second set was just as dramatic, with Alcaraz once again taking a lead and serving for the match at 5-3. Rublev saved three match points on return to break back. Alcaraz, however, broke Rublev in the 10th game to win it 6-4.

Alcaraz hit 29 winners to 33 unforced errors. That included 3 aces and 2 double faults. The Spaniard landed 68% of first serves in play and won 62% of first serve points (40/65). Alcaraz won 48% of second serve points (15/31) and saved nine of 13 break points. Alcaraz is a perfect 11-0 this season, having completed the career Grand Slam at the Australian Open last month. The only set he dropped this week was in the quarterfinal win over Karen Khachanov.

Arthur Fils, meanwhile, defeated Jannik Sinner’s conqueror Jakub Mensik in the other semifinal to reach the Doha showpiece. It is his first final since 2024, with the Frenchman spending the best part of last season on the sidelines due to a stress fracture. The match took 23 games to decide and lasted an hour and 38 minutes. Fils prevailed 6-4, 7-6.

In the victory, Fils fired 19 winners to 11 unforced errors, including 5 aces and 1 double fault. Fils landed 67% of first serves in play and won 72% of first serve points (39/54). He won 59% of second serve points (16/27) and saved 7 of 8 break points in the match. The 21-year-old has only lost one set this week and that came in the opening round win against Kamil Majchrzak. Fils is a three-time champion at ATP level, with his last title win coming in Tokyo almost two years ago.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils Head-To-Head

Alcaraz leads Fils 2-0 in the head-to-head. Both meetings took place last season on clay. Alcaraz prevailed in a classic in three sets at the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters. Their second meeting was in Barcelona. Alcaraz won in straight sets.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils Prediction

Alcaraz has been flawless this season and he passed some substantial tests where his mental resolve was put to the test. This will be no different, with Fils possessing such heavy artillery that can break the best defenses in the world. Fils played one of the matches of the season last year against Alcaraz in Monte Carlo and it was unfortunate that his back gave up on him after that match. I wouldn’t put it past him to take a set here, considering how brilliant his offensive power has been in this tournament. Alcaraz might have to go the distance to get the job done.

Nur Said's Pick: Fils set handicap 1.5