Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Prediction 8/16/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz will take on Alexander Zverev in the second semifinal at the 2025 Cincinnati Open. The match is scheduled for Saturday, August 16. Here’s our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev prediction. This preview will also include a Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev pick.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Preview

Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a three-set win over World No. 11 Andrey Rublev that took 31 games to decide. Alcaraz won the first set 6-3 comfortably, breaking Rublev twice and not facing a single break point. But as it has happened frequently this tournament, Alcaraz’s level dipped. He was broken midway through the second set, and Rublev would not relinquish his lead, eventually leveling the match 6-4.

Alcaraz applied the pressure in the third set, creating two break points at 2-1 up, but Rublev held. But it wasn’t long until Alcaraz broke the Russian for a 5-3 lead. But on his first attempt to serve for the match, Alcaraz failed, as Rublev tied the score at 5-5. Just when it looked like a tiebreak would be needed, Rublev produced an untimely double fault on match point while serving to stay in it, to hand Alcaraz victory. In total, Alcaraz hit 27 winners and 32 unforced errors, including 11 aces and four double faults. He won 75% of first serve points (40/53) and was broken twice.

Alexander Zverev ended Ben Shelton’s winning streak in routine fashion to reach the Cincinnati Open semifinals for the fourth time in his career. Shelton walked in as the home crowd favorite and with confidence edge following his title win in Toronto. But it was clear from the onset that he had depleted his energy reserves, and Zverev, who had already benefited from one retirement win in the tournament, was the fitter player.

Zverev broke Shelton’s serve twice in the opening set and fended off a late break point on his serve to clinch it 6-2. In the second set, the third seed did the same, breaking the American’s usually reliable serve twice in succession before easing to another 6-2 set. Zverev finished the match with 13 winners and seven unforced errors. That included five aces and two double faults. He won 81% of first serve points (26/32) and only faced one break point.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Head-To-Head

Alcaraz and Zverev have played 11 times at all levels. Zverev leads 6-5 and won their last meeting at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals. On outdoor hard courts, the h2h is tied at 2-2.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

The Zverev plus money is extremely tempting given what Alcaraz has served up in this tournament, with regular dips in level and just allowing opponents to hang around on the court longer. He’s lost two sets already in matches he could have avoided that late drama. But that’s to be expected from Alcaraz, whose game relies so much on high-risk shots and instinct. Very few players can match his talent and energy, and with the tournament reaching the business end, I still think Alcaraz can tighten up and find some of his top gear to win this, but Zverev’s imposing game on serve will make it another slugfest.