Brooksby vs Fritz Tokyo Prediction 9/29/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

World No. 86 Jenson Brooksby will face second seed Taylor Fritz in the semifinals of the 2025 Japan Open in Tokyo. The match is scheduled for Monday, September 29. Here’s our Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz prediction. This preview will also include a Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz pick.

Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz Preview

Jenson Brooksby reached his first ATP semifinal since the end of June in Eastbourne. Competing in his maiden Japan Open, Brooksby upset last year’s finalist Ugo Humbert in the opening round 7-6, 6-3 in under two hours. In the second round, Brooksby defeated Italian clay court specialist Luciano Darderi 7-6, 6-1 in 99 minutes to set up a quarterfinal match against third seed Holger Rune.

The American’s good week continued as he played his best tennis of the tournament to down Rune in straight sets. The match took 18 games to decide, with Brooksby prevailing 6-3, 6-3 in an hour and 32 minutes. Brooksby landed 65% of first serves in play and won 68% of first serve points (27/40). Brooksby won 55% of second serve points (12/22) and saved four of five break points in the match. Brooksby has reached two finals this season. One was in Houston, where he won the title from qualifying and the other was in Eastbourne, where he lost to Fritz.

Taylor Fritz’s path to the final four was a bit more taxing. The second seed faced Canada’s Gabriel Diallo in the opening round and Fritz was fortunate to escape with a victory in a third-set tiebreak. In the second round, Fritz overcame an inspired effort from Nuno Borges and won in two tight sets 7-5, 7-6.

Fritz dropped his second set of the week in the quarterfinal clash against fellow American Sebastian Korda, but the World No. 5 got the break he needed in the third set to prevail 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 in two hours and 20 minutes. Fritz tallied 14 aces and 3 double faults in the victory. He won 78% of first serve points (59/76) and saved six of seven break points in the match. This is his first semifinal in Tokyo since 2022, when he won the tournament. Fritz is chasing his third final of 2025.

Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz Head-To-Head

Brooksby and Fritz have met three times. Fritz leads their head-to-head 2-1. Brooksby beat his countryman at the 2021 US Open in four sets, but Fritz won their two meetings this season, one at the Australian Open and the other in Eastbourne.

Jenson Brooksby vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Fritz has been so resilient this week and showed grit to win a trio of very close matches. That’s one part of Fritz’s game that I think he’s improved on this season. It is matches against the cream of the crop that have prevented him from winning it all. That said, Brooksby has hit his upside this second half of the year, and he’s probably just eclipse his 2021-2022 level when he first broke out on tour and beat Fritz for the first time, and there is no reason why he won’t do it again if he can deliver high-quality performances like he’s done all week.