Beijing Prediction: Pegula vs Kostyuk 10/1/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Fifth seed Jessica Pegula will face 23rd Marta Kostyuk in the fourth round of the 2025 China Open in Beijing. The match is scheduled for Wednesday, October 1. Here’s our Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk prediction. This preview will also include a Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk pick.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Preview

Jessica Pegula is coming off a rollercoaster victory over Emma Raducanu in the last round. Pegula lost the opening set 6-3 in 41 minutes and the American briefly trailed by a break at the start of the second set, but quickly broke back to level. It was in the second set tiebreak that all the drama ensued. Raducanu had three match points, with a couple of them on her own serve at 6-5 and then at 8-7, but she could not convert.

Pegula made Raducanu pay and took her second set point chance at 10-9 after an hour and 15 minutes. In the third set, it was one-way traffic as Pegula romped past the Briton 6-0 in under half an hour. Pegula hit 5 aces and 2 double faults in the victory. Pegula landed 63% of first serves in play and won 68% of first serve points (41/60). She won 51% of second serve points (18/35) and saved four of seven break points in the match.

Marta Kostyuk is through to the last 16 at the China Open for a second time, thanks to a straight-sets win over Belarusian qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich. The match took 18 games to decide and lasted an hour and 25 minutes.

A tight first set featured only one break of serve and it went Kostyuk’s way and the Ukrainian wrapped up the set 6-4. Kostyuk broke Sasnovich’s serve twice in the second set to win it 6-2. Kostyuk hit 4 aces and 4 double faults in the victory. She landed 58% of first serves in play and won 79% of first serve points (30/38). Kostyuk won 46% of second serve points (13/28) and saved an incredible 11 break points on her serve.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Head-To-Head

Pegula and Kostyuk have met four times, all on hard courts. Pegula leads the head-to-head 3-1 and beat Kostyuk in straight sets at this year’s Miami Open.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction

I fancy Kostyuk to nab a set in this one and it looks likely with the way she’s been playing since the start of the North American swing, where Kostyuk put some solid results on the board in Canada and the US Open. She has only lost two completed matches since the start of August and is undefeated in her last four. It’s quite plausible that she might stretch the favorite in this matchup.