Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Prediction 1/25/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face World No. 16 Victoria Mboko in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open on Sunday, January 25. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko pick.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Preview

Aryna Sabalenka stuttered to victory in the last round, beating Anastasia Potapova in straight sets. However, the scoreline was hardly a reflection of dominance as Sabalenka, who looked on course for a routine victory before a monumental collapse nearly cost her a set.

Sabalenka led 7-6, 4-0, and served for the match at 5-4 in the second set, but she could not take the chance, and Potapova forced a tiebreak where she held four set points. Luckily for Sabalenka, she got out of jail each time and prevailed on her first match point to win the breaker 9-7. The match lasted two hours and nine minutes, and it was her toughest of the tournament so far.

In the victory, Sabalenka hit 34 winners and 44 unforced errors. She tallied 3 aces and 2 double faults. Sabalenka landed 73% of first serves in play and won 60% of first serve points (38/63). Sabalenka won 65% of second serve points (15/23) and saved three of seven break points in the match. Sabalenka has not lost before the quarterfinals at the Australian Open since 2022. She is yet to drop a set this week.

Victoria Mboko is Canada’s top-ranked player in the women’s draw and the sole representative from her country in singles. The 19-year-old punched her ticket into the second week of the Australian Open with a big win over 14th seed Clara Tauson. Mboko edged the Dane in the first set tiebreak after 50 minutes. She had the match on her racket in the second set, leading 5-3, and despite failing to serve it out in the next game, she held three match points on Tauson’s serve.

But each time, Tauson held her never and went on to win the second set 7-5. It looked like Tauson had the momentum when she got a break at the start of the third set, but Mboko regained her focus and composure to reel off six of the next eight games.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Mboko have never faced off, so this will be their first career meeting.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Prediction

I think the consensus is that Mboko will challenge Sabalenka, and she could even take this match to a third set. This will be the World No. 1’s first proper assignment in the tournament. But I’m not underestimating Sabalenka’s mental strength. This is one special quality that is often overlooked when it comes to Sabalenka and she’s a serial winner and won’t dwell on past mistakes for too long.

Nur Said's Pick: Aryna Sabalenka in three sets