Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction 4/30/25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk meet in the quarterfinals of the 2025 WTA Madrid Open on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk pick.

Aryna Sabalenka Preview

Aryna Sabalenka defeated World No. 44 Peyton Stearns to reach the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open. Sabalenka took 80 minutes to dispatch the American in straight sets. Sabalenka broke Stearns twice in the first set and saved all 10 breakpoints she faced. She won it 6-2 in 37 minutes.

In the second set, Sabalenka lost her serve, which saw Stearns draw level at 3-3, but the World No. 11 broke to 15 for a 5-4 lead and served successfully for the match. Sabalenka finished the match with three aces and landed 56% of first serves in play. She won 78% of first serve points (28/36) and 43% of second serve points (12/28).

In total, Sabalenka saved 12 of 13 breakpoints in the match. Sabalenka has won five of her last six matches on clay. She has reached the final in each of her last three tournaments, including in Stuttgart. Sabalenka is a two-time champion in Madrid but lost to Iga Swiatek in last year’s final.

Marta Kostyuk Preview

Marta Kostyuk defeated Anastasia Potapova 6-3, 6-2 in an hour and 21 minutes. It’s her first quarterfinal in Madrid and a first since Doha in February. Kostyuk accounted for three double faults in the match and landed 67% of first serve points. Kostyuk won 70% of first serve points (26/37) and 56% of second serve points (10/18). She saved one of two breakpoints.

Kostyuk improves to 14-9 for the season and is now 3-0 on clay. In the first round, she defeated Emma Raducanu in three sets. In the second round, she beat Veronika Kudermetova, also in three sets. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Kostyuk have met twice at the WTA level. Sabalenka leads Kostyuk 2-0 in the head-to-head. They last met at the 2023 French Open. Sabalenka won in straight sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction

Sabalenka opens as the favorite at -500, and we agree with the oddsmakers. She’s been the most dominant player with more wins than any other player on the WTA Tour. Her record in Madrid is near impeccable. Kostyuk is one of the tour’s most improved players in the last two years and is a much better player than when they met at the 2023 Roland Garros, but I can’t see a different outcome in the match result. Kostyuk will ask plenty of questions, but expect Sabalenka to have all the answers.

Nur Said's Pick: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets