Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Australian Open Prediction 1/31/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and World No. 5 Elena Rybakina clash in the Australian Open women’s final on Saturday, January 31. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina pick.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview

Aryna Sabalenka reached the eighth Grand Slam final of her career with a straight sets win over Elina Svitolina in the semifinals. After what appeared to be a nervy start to the match, where Sabalenka staved off two break points to hold in the opening game, the Belarusian eventually wrapped the victory 6-2, 6-3 in an hour and 17 minutes to extend her excellent record against the Ukrainian.

Sabalenka hit 29 winners and 15 unforced errors in the match. She landed 67% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (25/36). Sabalenka won 67% of second serve points (12/18) and saved three of four break points. Sabalenka has not dropped a set during the fortnight and will contest her fourth straight Australian Open final. She has lifted the title twice, but lost to Madison Keys in last year’s final. Overall, Sabalenka has four Grand Slams in singles.

Elena Rybakina, meanwhile, overcame a tenacious Jessica Pegula in the second semifinal, which was a lot tighter. Rybakina got the job done in straight sets, but she nearly squandered multiple match points as Pegula fought back late in the second set.

But despite the American’s best efforts to save three match points on her serve and breaking Rybakina to restore parity on serve, she failed to convert her set points in the tiebreak. Rybakina held her nerve and, on her fourth match point, sealed her spot in Saturday’s final. Rybakina will be chasing her second Grand Slam. She won her only major title at the 2022 Wimbledon Championships. This will be her first Grand Slam final appearance since the 2023 Australian Open (lost to Sabalenka).

Aryna Sabalenka: Path to the final

First round: def. Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah 6-4, 6-1
Second round: def. Zhuoxuan Bai 6-3, 6-1
Third round: def. Anastasia Potapova 7-6 (4), 7-6 (7)
Round of 16: def. Victoria Mboko 6-1, 7-6 (1)
Quarterfinals: def. Iva Jovic 6-3, 6-0
Semifinals: def. Elina Svitolina 6-2, 6-3

Elena Rybakina: Path to the final

First round: def. Kaia Juvan 6-4, 6-3
Second round: def. Varvara Gracheva 7-5, 6-2
Third round: def. Tereza Valentova 6-2, 6-3
Round of 16: def. Elise Mertens 6-1, 6-3
Quarterfinals: def. Iga Swiatek 7-5, 6-1
Semifinals: def. Jessica Pegula 6-3, 7-6 (7)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-To-Head

Sabalenka and Rybakina have played each other 14 times. The World No. 1 holds an 8-6 record over the Kazakh. In their last four meetings, each player won twice. Sabalenka beat Rybakina to win her first Grand Slam at the 2023 Australian Open.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction

The most nervous I’ve seen Rybakina in this tournament was in the closing stages of the semifinal against Jessica Pegula, but she has played almost flawless tennis for the most part. Sabalenka was untested in her semifinal win against Sivitolina and should be the slight favorite to lift her fifth Slam. That said, Rybakina is the one player who tends to make Sabalenka look vulnerable even at her peak, and probably the only player with the firepower to rival the Belarusian’s heavy hitting. I’m backing Rybakina to rise to the occasion on Saturday and finally win her second major.

Nur Said's Pick: Elena Rybakina in three sets