Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez Prediction 3/19/25 Miami Tennis Picks

Alexander Bublik and Sebastian Baez clash in the first round of the 2025 ATP Miami Open on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. Here’s our Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez prediction. This preview will also include an Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez pick.

Alexander Bublik Preview

Alexander Bublik is coming off a runner-up finish at the Phoenix Challenger. During the week, he earned wins over Vukic, Hijikata, Moutet, and Borges, before losing to rising NextGen champion Joao Fonseca in the final.

This was Bublik’s first final of the season at all levels. Before heading to the stacked Challenger event, Bublik had lost four matches in a row including the first round of Indian Wells. He had won just two matches since January and his season needed a lift-off. The Kazakh got one in Phoenix and will be determined to carry that momentum to Miami.

Bublik has featured in the main draw of the Miami Open five times in the past, reaching the quarterfinals back in 2021. Last year, he lost in the second round to Matteo Arnaldi in straight sets.

Sebastian Baez Preview

Sebastian Baez is 12-6 for the season but has lost his last two matches. The Argentinian collected all 12 wins on clay thanks to another highly productive stay in South America. In four tournaments last month, Baez reached at least the semifinals or better in three of them including two finals.

He completed a successful title defense at the ATP 500 in Rio and nearly scooped the Santiago 250 a week later, but lost to Laslo Djere in the final. In his first hard-court match since the Australian Open, Baez was beaten by Italian qualifier Matteo Gigante in Indian Wells.

Baez will compete in the Miami main draw for the fourth time in his career. He reached the second round in each of the last two seasons. 

Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez Head-To-Head

• Bublik and Baez have never met before at any level.

Alexander Bublik vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

I’m on Baez here. Granted that Bublik is the better hard courter with the bigger weaponry on the surface, we’ve only been treated to that flashy shotmaking and consistent results occasionally this season. Moreover, Bublik finished with a negative win-loss record on outdoor hard courts last year, so this notion that he’s a favorite purely because of his track record on hard courts is not overly dependable. Baez’s work ethic is top notch and he’s adaptable. He’s also won a title on U.S. soil before. Bublik is coming off a long and arduous week in Phoenix where he made the final, so it’s difficult to predict with certainty where his energy levels are at.