Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction 4/12/25 Monte Carlo Tennis Picks

Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the semifinal of the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters on Saturday, April 12, 2025. Here’s our Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction. This preview will also include an Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti pick.

Alex de Minaur Preview

Alex de Minaur demolished Grigor Dimitrov 6-0, 6-0 to reach his first-ever Monte Carlo semifinal. In the victory, which took just 45 minutes of playing time, de Minaur hit seven winners and eight unforced errors. The Australian landed 52% of first serves in play and won 75% of first serve points (12/16). He won 80% of second serve points (12/15) and did not face a breakpoint in the whole match.

De Minaur won a healthy 75% of return points (24/32) and broke the Bulgarian’s serve six times. Before this victory, De Minaur had beaten Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev. He has won his last six sets in the tournament, dropping a combined seven games. He has lost just one set this week, and that was in his opening match against the Czech. De Minaur has reached one final this season (Rotterdam), while the only Masters 1000 final of his career was at the Canada Masters in 2023.

Lorenzo Musetti Preview

Lorenzo Musetti earned his first win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in six tries, ending the Greek’s title reign in Monte Carlo. Musetti reacted emphatically to losing the first set 1-6 and overpowered Tsitsipas in the next two sets to turn the match around and book his spot in the semifinals at the Principality for the first time.

In the victory, which took two hours and 23 minutes, Musetti hit 21 winners and 17 unforced errors, including one ace and one double fault. Musetti landed 74% of first serves in play and won 63% of first serve points (47/75). The Italian won 56% of second serve points (15/27) and saved an impressive 14 of 17 breakpoints. Musetti won 40% of return points (34/85) and broke Tsitsipas three times in the match. He improves to 11-4 for the season. Musetti had earlier on beaten Yuchaokete Bu, Jiri Lehecka, and Matteo Berrettini.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Head-To-Head

• De Minaur and Musetti have played twice at the ATP level.

• The head-to-head is tied at 1-1, but this will be their first meeting on clay.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

I do like De Minaur to come out on top here, but I’m going with the overs. And the biggest factor is very straightforward. Both players are baseline-oriented and can play with patience and shape. The Monte Carlo clay slows everything down and we’ll get a plethora of long points and longer sets. Ultimately, the Aussie’s defensive scrambling will likely be enough to seal the win. 

Nur Said's Pick: Over 22.5 games in the match