Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction 11/29/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins meet Saturday in NHL action at the PPG Paints Arena. Here’s a Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction. This article will include a Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Pick.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Capitals, beat the Blue Jackets, and they play the Panthers next. The Maple Leafs have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 3.3 goals per game and are scoring 15 percent of their power-play opportunities. John Tavares leads Toronto with 12 goals, William Nylander has 20 assists, and Auston Matthews has 71 shots on goal. Defensively, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing 3.61 goals per game and are killing 80.9 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Anthony Stolarz has allowed 41 goals on 353 shots faced, while Joseph Woll has given up 16 goals on 185 shots.

Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Sabres and Blue Jackets, and they play the Flyers next. The Penguins have lost 7 of their last 11 games.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are averaging 3.09 goals per game and are scoring 31.4 percent of their power play opportunities. Sidney Crosby leads Pittsburgh with 15 goals, Evgeni Malkin has 18 assists, and Bryan Rust has 51 shots on goal. Defensively, the Pittsburgh Penguins are allowing 2.59 goals per game and are killing 85.2 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Arturs Silovs has allowed 29 goals on 313 shots faced, while Tristan Jarry has given up 23 goals on 262 shots.

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Penguins have won each of their last five games as home underdogs following a road win.
• The Maple Leafs have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in five of their last six games when leading after the second period.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Penguins have lost each of their last six night games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Maple Leafs have won five of their last six road games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in four of their last five road games following a road loss.
• The Penguins have lost the third period in five of their last six games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents at PPG Paints Arena when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Ten of the Maple Leafs’ last 11 games as favorites against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the Penguins’ last eight games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Maple Leafs and Penguins at PPG Paints Arena.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one assist in each of the Penguins’ last five games against the Maple Leafs.
• Bryan Rust has recorded at least one point in each of the Penguins’ last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Rickard Rakell has scored at least one goal in each of his last five appearances with the Penguins as underdogs against the Maple Leafs.
• Benjamin Kindel has recorded two points against the Maple Leafs this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• John Tavares has scored a goal in each of his last five appearances after playing less than 20 minutes the previous day.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one point in 18 of his last 19 appearances in night games.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one assist in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Maple Leafs as favorites.
• Scott Laughton has recorded 111 career hits against the Penguins – most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank T4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (85.71%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of five teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 8th in the league for goals per game this season (3.25).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs have suffered the equal-most losses when leading after Period 2 this season (4).

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction

It’s not always sexy with the Penguins, but they continue to scrap out points and find ways to get it done. The Maple Leafs may be the more talented team, and they’ve had great recent success against the Penguins. The problem is the Maple Leafs don’t win on the road, and it’s not going to help they’re on the end of a back to back. This will be the Maple Leafs third road game in the last four days. As I said yesterday, I need to see the Maple Leafs get it done on the road before I can trust them in these spots. Give me the Penguins.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins