Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction 3/21/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators meet Saturday in NHL action from the Canadian Tire Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators prediction.

Toronto Maple Leafs Recap

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game looking to shake off their 4-3 OT loss to Carolina last time out to sit at 29-28-13 this season. After this game, Toronto will head on the road for a game against Boston.

Maple Leafs Lose Back-To-Back Games

William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 64 points on 24 goals and a team-high 40 assists while John Tavares has 56 points with 24 goals and 32 assists and Matthew Knies has 57 points with 18 goals and 39 assists. Auston Matthews has 53 points with 27 goals and 26 assists and Morgan Rielly has 33 points with 24 assists. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has 35 points with 27 assists. Anthony Stolarz has gone 8-9-3 with a 3.34 GAA and an .894 save percentage in goal for the Maple Leafs while Joseph Woll is 14-12-6 with a 3.11 GAA and a .905 save percentage. Dennis Hildeby is also 5-6-4 with a 2.90 GAA and a .912 save percentage this season.

Ottawa Senators Recap

The Ottawa Senators come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over the Islanders last time out to sit at 35-24-9 this season. After this game, Ottawa will head on the road for a game against the New York Rangers.

Senators Win 6 Of Last 8

Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 71 points coming on a team-high 31 goals and 40 assists while Drake Batherson has 60 points with 27 goals and 33 assists. Shane Pinto has 37 points with 18 goals and 19 assists while Dylan Cozens has 50 points with 24 goals and 26 assists. Claude Giroux has 42 points with 11 goals and 31 assists, Brady Tkachuk has 47 points with 19 goals and 28 assists and Jake Sanderson has 48 points with 11 goals and 37 assists. Linus Ullmark has gone 21-10-7 with a 2.79 GAA and an .886 save percentage in goal for Ottawa while Leevi Merilainen has gone 8-10-1 with a 3.51 GAA and an .860 save percentage as well this season. James Reimer has also gone 5-3-1 with a 2.47 GAA and an .884 save percentage this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators Betting Trends: March 21, 2026

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last 13 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The home team has won each of the Senators’ last four games.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage against Senators.
• Senators has covered the puck line in each of its last six home matches when playing with a rest advantage against Maple Leafs.
• The Senators have won the second period in each of their last six games as favorites when trailing after the first period.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Senators have lost each of their last six games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The underdogs have won four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 14 of the Maple Leafs’ last 15 games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have lost the second period in each of their last four home games against Atlantic Division opponents when leading after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the last six games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Senators’ last five home games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last eight Saturday night games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games after coming off overtime.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Brady Tkachuk has scored a goal in five of the Senators’ last six night games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• Jake Sanderson has recorded at least one assist in each of his last seven home appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Dylan Cozens has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last three games against the Senators.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last five games as road underdogs against the Senators.
• Matthew Knies has scored two goals against the Senators this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators rank 30th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (74.24%).
• The Ottawa Senators rank 1st in the league for shots against per game this season (24.2).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 30th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.44).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 5th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (82.89%).

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. I get that it’s a rivalry matchup, but these two teams like to hurt each other on the scoreboard more than anything, and the thing about the Leafs here is it’s a back-to-back, but I also think Toronto’s found some scoring punch as of late so I think we have a 4-3 or 5-4 kind of game so give me the over here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Over 6.5