Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators Prediction 4/7/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Ottawa Senators meet Tuesday in NHL action from the Canadian Tire Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators prediction.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to bounce back from their 4-2 loss at the hands of Buffalo last time out to sit at 48-23-6 this season. After this game, the Lightning will take on the Montreal Canadiens on the road.

Lightning Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 126 points including 43 goals and 83 assists while Brandon Hagel has 73 points with 35 goals and 38 assists and Jake Guentzel has 86 points with 37 goals and 49 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 52 points with 23 goals and 29 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 69 points with 21 goals and 48 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 37-14-4 with a 2.33 GAA and a .912 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 11-9-2 with a 3.21 GAA and an .886 save percentage this season. 

Ottawa Senators Recap

The Ottawa Senators come into this game looking to build on a 6-3 win over Carolina last time out to sit at 40-27-10 this season. After this game, Ottawa will take on the Florida Panthers at home.

Senators Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 79 points coming on a team-high 33 goals and 46 assists while Drake Batherson has 66 points with 31 goals and 35 assists. Shane Pinto has 42 points with 21 goals and 21 assists while Dylan Cozens has 55 points with 27 goals and 28 assists. Claude Giroux has 45 points with 13 goals and 32 assists, Brady Tkachuk has 54 points with 22 goals and 32 assists and Jake Sanderson has 49 points with 11 goals and 38 assists. Linus Ullmark has gone 25-12-8 with a 2.84 GAA and an .886 save percentage in goal for Ottawa while Leevi Merilainen has gone 8-10-1 with a 3.51 GAA and an .860 save percentage as well this season. James Reimer has also gone 6-4-1 with a 2.42 GAA and an .883 save percentage this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators Betting Trends: April 7, 2026

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Senators have won seven of their last eight night games following a home win.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last four road games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in six of their last seven home games against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven night games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Senators have won the second period in seven of their last eight games as favorites when trailing after the first period.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Senators have lost six of their last eight games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven Tuesday games as home favorites.
• The Lightning have won the second period in each of their last five road games against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the last five games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Lightning’s last four road games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last 10 night games between the Lightning and Senators at Canadian Tire Centre have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last 11 road games against the Senators.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in 22 of the last 23 games between the Lightning and Senators.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Brady Tkachuk has scored at least one goal in six of his last seven home appearances against the Lightning.
• Jake Sanderson has recorded at least one assist in each of his last eight home appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Warren Foegele has recorded at least four shots in each of his last zero appearances – [longest/equal-longest] active streak in the league.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in five of the Lightning’s last six road games.
• Darren Raddysh has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last five games as underdogs.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for Points (126) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators rank 30th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (74.77%).
• The Ottawa Senators rank 8th in the league for goals per game this season (3.31).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.57).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction

I’m on the Senators here. I get the case to be made for Tampa Bay, who have been a solid road team up to this point in the year. However, the Lightning also are on a back-to-back here so we likely see Jonas Johansson, who is a huge step down from Andrei Vasilevskiy. I think Ottawa’s got more to play for and take advantage of the step down in goaltending and the Senators get it done at home here. Give me Ottawa.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Ottawa -135