Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction 3/12/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Red Wings vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, March 12th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview

The Detroit Red Wings are 36-22-7 this year after they lost to the Panthers by a score of 4-3 in their last game. Detroit led 3-2 late in the third period, but they allowed two goals in the last 1:30 for the devastating loss. The Red Wings recorded 28 shots on goal, won 51.7% of the face-offs, and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Detroit got goals from Kane, Kasper, and Faulk, while Gibson stopped 24 out of 28 shots, which was an .857 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Detroit defeated the Devils by a score of 3-0, but lost to the Panthers by a score of 3-1 before that. The Red Wings have lost three of their last four games and they are currently fourth in the Atlantic standings with 79 points. Detroit has scored 2.92 goals per game and they have allowed 2.94 goals against per game, while also going 22.3% on the power play and 78.9% on the penalty kill this season. Lucas Raymond has led Detroit with 20 goals and 45 assists, while Alex DeBrincat has added 33 goals and 31 assists. The projected starting goalie for Detroit is John Gibson, who is 24-14-2 with a 2.56 goals against average and a .906 save percentage this year. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 39-20-4 this season after they lost to the Blue Jackets by a score of 5-2 in their last game. Tampa Bay led 1-0 after the first period, but they allowed five of the last six goals for the loss. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 32-18, won 56.4% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Goncalves and Moser, while Vasilevskiy stopped 27 out of 31 shots, which was an .871 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay lost to the Sabres by a score of 8-7, but did beat the Maple Leafs by a score of 5-2 before that. The Lightning have lost six of their last seven games and they are currently second in the Atlantic standings with 82 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.51 goals per game and they have allowed 2.78 goals against per game, while also going 21.8% on the power play and 81.4% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 34 goals and 70 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 27 goals and 40 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 29-11-3 with a 2.32 goals against average and a .913 save percentage this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won seven of their last eight games against the Red Wings following a home loss.
• The Red Wings have lost each of their last seven Thursday night games at Benchmark International Arena.
• The Red Wings have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five night games at Benchmark International Arena against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in three of their last four night games against the Red Wings following a home loss.
• The Lightning have won the first period in five of their last six home games against the Red Wings following a loss.

Why the Detroit Red Wings will win

• The Red Wings have won each of their last six road games following a road loss.
• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a loss.
• The Red Wings have covered the puck line in seven of their last eight night games against the Lightning following a road loss.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in four of their last five games as favorites.

Total Goals Facts

• Ten of the Lightning’s last 11 night games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Six of the Red Wings’ last seven road games against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Red Wings’ last five games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Lightning’s last nine games at Benchmark International Arena.
• Nick Paul has scored a goal in three of his last four home appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.

Detroit Red Wings Player Prop Facts

• Moritz Seider has recorded at least one assist in six of the Red Wings’ last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Dylan Larkin has scored at least one goal in four of his last five road appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.

Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup after losing six of their last seven games and they have dropped to second in the Atlantic division. The Lightning are 19-11-0 at home this year, while the Red Wings are 18-11-4 on the road. Detroit has lost three of their last four games and they just had an epic collapse against the Panthers. The Red Wings have been awful during the month of March over the last few seasons and it looks like it could be the same here. Take TB -1.5 in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Lightning -1.5