Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 12/23/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet Tuesday in NHL action from Scotiabank Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction.

Pittsburgh Penguins Recap

The Pittsburgh Penguins come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 shootout win over Montreal last time out to improve to 15-11-9 this season. After this game, Pittsburgh will head on the road for a game against Chicago after the Christmas Break.

Penguins Snap Eight-Game Skid

Sidney Crosby leads Pittsburgh in scoring with 37 points including a team-high 20 goals and 17 assists while Evgeni Malkin has 29 points with 8 goals and 21 assists. Anthony Mantha has 22 points with 10 goals and 12 assists. Erik Karlsson has 23 assists while Bryan Rust has 29 points with 12 goals and 17 assists. Arturs Silovs has gone 5-5-6 with a 3.22 GAA and an .889 save percentage in goal for the Penguins so far this season while Stuart Skinner is 0-2 with a 4.25 GAA and an .810 save percentage this year. Sergei Murashov is 1-1-2 with a 2.56 GAA and an .897 save percentage in goal for Pittsburgh this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Recap

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game looking to shake off a 5-1 loss to Dallas last time out to sit at 15-15-5 this season. After this game, Toronto will take on Ottawa in a battle of Ontario at home after the Christmas Break.

Maple Leafs Drop 3rd In A Row

William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 36 points on 11 goals and a team-high 25 assists while John Tavares has 31 points with a team-high 14 goals and 17 assists and Matthew Knies has 29 points with 7 goals and 22 assists. Auston Matthews has 23 points with 14 goals and 9 assists and Morgan Rielly has 24 points with 19 assists. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has 22 points with 16 assists. Anthony Stolarz has gone 6-5-1 with a 3.51 GAA and an .884 save percentage in goal for the Maple Leafs while Joseph Woll is 5-4-1 with a 2.46 GAA and a .925 save percentage. Dennis Hildeby is also 2-5-3 with a 2.96 GAA and a .911 save percentage this season.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends: December 23, 2025

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Penguins have lost eight of their last nine games.
• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last four home games against the Penguins.
• The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five games at Scotiabank Arena against opponents on a losing streak.
• The favorites have covered the puck line in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games.
• The Penguins have lost the second period in each of their last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents when trailing after the first period.

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Penguins have won each of their last five games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last eight road games following a home win.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The underdogs have won the first period in each of the last six games between the Penguins and Maple Leafs.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Penguins’ last eight day games against opponents on a losing streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last five games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 16 of the Penguins’ last 17 games following a shootout win.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Penguins and Maple Leafs.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games as favorites against the Penguins.
• Morgan Rielly has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six home games against the Penguins.
• Bobby McMann has scored two goals against the Penguins this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Rickard Rakell has scored at least one goal in each of his last six appearances against the Maple Leafs.
• Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one assist in each of the Penguins’ last six games against the Maple Leafs.
• Rickard Rakell has recorded at least four shots in each of his last four appearances – longest active streak in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 32nd in the league in power play percentage this season (13.33%).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 6th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.16%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 3rd in the league in power play percentage this season (29.59%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins have recorded the equal-longest losing streak (8 games) in the NHL this season.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

I’m on Toronto here. It’s do or die time at this point for Toronto as they can’t afford any more losses at this point and the Christmas break couldn’t come at a better time for both of these teams. However, Pittsburgh’s really been struggling this month and one win isn’t going to convince me that all is right with this team as I still have serious concerns about their goaltending. Not one I’m rushing to bet, but I’ll side with Toronto here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Toronto -135