Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 3/28/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Ottawa Senators and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Saturday in NHL action from the Benchmark International Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.

Ottawa Senators Recap

The Ottawa Senators come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-3 shootout loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins last time out to sit at 38-24-10 this season. After this game, Ottawa will head on the road for a game against the Florida Panthers.

Senators Have Four-Game Win Streak Snapped

Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with 75 points coming on a team-high 32 goals and 43 assists while Drake Batherson has 63 points with 29 goals and 34 assists. Shane Pinto has 39 points with 19 goals and 20 assists while Dylan Cozens has 51 points with 24 goals and 27 assists. Claude Giroux has 44 points with 12 goals and 32 assists, Brady Tkachuk has 50 points with 20 goals and 30 assists and Jake Sanderson has 48 points with 11 goals and 37 assists. Linus Ullmark has gone 23-10-8 with a 2.75 GAA and an .889 save percentage in goal for Ottawa while Leevi Merilainen has gone 8-10-1 with a 3.51 GAA and an .860 save percentage as well this season. James Reimer has also gone 6-3-1 with a 2.32 GAA and an .884 save percentage this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-3 OT loss to Seattle last time out to sit at 44-21-6 this season. After this game, the Lightning will take on the Nashville Predators at home.

Lightning Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 121 points including 40 goals and 81 assists while Brandon Hagel has 70 points with 33 goals and 37 assists and Jake Guentzel has 76 points with 33 goals and 43 assists. Anthony Cirelli has 49 points with 20 goals and 29 assists. Darren Raddysh has also added 65 points with 20 goals and 45 assists as well on the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone 34-12-4 with a 2.33 GAA and a .912 save percentage while Jonas Johansson is 10-9-2 with a 3.27 GAA and an .883 save percentage this season. 

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: March 28, 2026

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won 10 of their last 11 day games.
• The Senators have lost four of their last five games following a shootout win.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last three day games.
• The Lightning have won the second period in each of their last four home games.

Why the Ottawa Senators will win

• The Senators have won 11 of their last 12 day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Lightning.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 12 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have won the second period in each of their last six games as road underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last seven home games after coming off overtime have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Ten of the last 11 day games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Senators’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last 11 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven games after coming off overtime.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brayden Point has scored a goal in seven of his last eight home appearances against the Senators.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last seven day games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for Points (121) this season.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Drake Batherson has scored at least one goal in five of the Senators’ last six road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one assist in each of his last eight appearances with the Senators as underdogs against the Lightning.
• Shane Pinto has scored two goals against the Lightning this season – equal-most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.61).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
• The Ottawa Senators rank 30th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (74.76%).
• The Ottawa Senators rank 32nd in the league in save percentage this season (.879).

Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

I’m on the Lightning here. I just think that Ottawa takes a bit of a step back on the road and while the Lightning took an L in their last game, this is still a really solid Tampa Bay team that historically has been pretty decent at home and isn’t a team I’m really looking to get in front of right now. The Lightning should be able to cash in with the Sabres continuing to falter in key opportunities, so give me Tampa Bay for a big win and 2 points at home here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Tampa Bay -155