Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction 12/11/2025 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Canadiens vs Penguins Prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, December 11th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins Preview

The Penguins have 35 points this season with a 14-7-7 record, and are 20-8 ATS and 13-12 in over/under. They have a 6-4-3 home record and a 8-3-4 road record and are sitting 4th in the Metropolitan Division. They are coming off a 4-3 home shootout loss to the Ducks, and their previous three games were a 3-2 road shootout loss against the Stars, a 4-3 road win against the Lightning, and a 5-1 road win against the Flyers.

Offensively, the Penguins are averaging 3.14 goals per game and are scoring 32.4% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.71 goals per game and are killing 85.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Sidney Crosby leads the Penguins with 31 points and 18 goals, while Evgeni Malkin leads the team in assists with 21. Tristan Jarry is the starting goalie for the Penguins, and he has a 9-2-1 record, with 2.54 GAA and .913 SV%. Arturs Silovs is the backup goalie and he has a 4-4-5 record, with 2.98 GAA and .900 SV%.

Montreal Canadiens Preview

The Canadiens have 33 points this season with a 15-11-3 record, and are 13-16 ATS and 20-7 in over/under. They have a 7-8-1 home record and an 8-3-2 road record and are sitting 4th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 6-1 home loss to the Lightning, and their previous three games were a 4-3 home loss against the Blues, a 2-1 road shootout win against the Maple Leafs, and a 3-2 home shootout win against the Jets.

Offensively, the Canadiens are averaging 3.14 goals per game and are scoring 25.6% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.55 goals per game and are killing 77.2% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 33 points and 25 assists, while Cole Caufield leads the team in goals with 16. Jakub Dobes is the starting goalie for the Canadiens, and he has a 10-5-2 record, with 3.15 GAA and .887 SV%. Samuel Montembeault is the backup goalie and he has a 5-6-1 record, with 3.65 GAA and .857 SV%.

Montreal Canadiens @ Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Trends: December 11, 2025

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Canadiens have lost each of their last eight road games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Penguins have won each of their last 10 Thursday home games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven night games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last eight Thursday games.
• The Canadiens have lost the second period in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against Metropolitan Division opponents.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Penguins have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Penguins’ last six games.
• The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in 13 of their last 14 games as favorites following a shootout loss.
• The underdogs have won the first period in each of the Penguins’ last five games.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Canadiens’ last eight games against Metropolitan Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Penguins’ last six Thursday home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last eight Thursday games at PPG Paints Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last nine games following a loss.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Penguins’ last four home games against opponents on a losing streak.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Benjamin Kindel has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one point in each of the Penguins’ last 10 Thursday home games.
• Rickard Rakell has recorded an assist in each of his last seven Thursday appearances.
• Sidney Crosby ranks 1st amongst qualified players for shooting percentage (28.1%) this season.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Oliver Kapanen has scored a goal in four of the Canadiens’ last five road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded an assist in eight of the Canadiens’ last nine games.
• Cole Caufield has recorded at least one point in 11 of the Canadiens’ last 12 games.
• Cole Caufield ranks T2nd in the league for multi-goal games (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 1st in the league in power play percentage this season (32.39%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (85.19%).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank T30th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.55).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 4th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.61%).

Canadiens vs Penguins Prediction

The Penguins have won their last six meetings against the Canadiens and the over is 5-3 in their last 8 meetings.  

In this Canadiens vs Penguins Prediction, the Penguins are coming as -117 home favorites. Both teams have similar overall records this season but both are not in the best form lately, as they have back-to-back losses both. The Penguins have been struggling at home lately, as they are 1-4 in their last 5 home games, while the Canadiens are 3-1 in their last 4 road games. I don’t see value on either side of this matchup, but both teams average 6.28 goals per game combined and both defenses have been struggling lately, so I expect a high-scoring affair today. Take the over 6.5 goals.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 6.5