Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Prediction 3/5/25 NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights prediction for this NHL game on Wednesday, March 5th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup. 

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 38-20-3 this year after they lost to San Jose in a shootout by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Toronto led 2-0 in the third period, but they allowed San Jose to tie the game and ended up losing in the shootout. The Maple Leafs outshot San Jose by a total of 27-22, won 69.4% of the face-offs, and went 2-5 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Knies and Tavares, while Stolarz stopped 20 out of 22 shots in the game. 

Prior to that loss, the Maple Leafs defeated the Penguins by a score of 6-5 and the Rangers by a score of 3-2. Toronto has won five of their last six games and they are currently battling Florida for first in the Atlantic standings with 79 points. Toronto has scored 3.21 goals per game and they have allowed 2.85 goals against per game, while also going 23.5% on the power play and 79.4% on the penalty kill this season. Mitch Marner has led Toronto with 18 goals, 58 assists, and 134 shots on goal, while William Nylander has added 35 goals, 27 assists, and 200 shots on goal. Joseph Woll is 21-11-0 with a 2.70 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage this year. 

Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview

The Vegas Golden Knights are 36-18-6 this season after they defeated New Jersey by a score of 2-0 in their last game. Vegas couldn’t find any offense in the first two periods, but they scored twice in the third for the shutout win. The Golden Knights were outshot by a total of 25-24, won 49% of the face-offs, and went 2-4 on the power play in the game. Vegas got goals from Stone and Hanifin, while Hill stopped all 25 shots that he faced in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Golden Knights defeated the Blackhawks by a score of 7-5 but lost to the Kings by a score of 5-2 before that. Vegas has won five of their last six games and they are currently first in the Pacific standings with 78 points. Vegas has scored 3.30 goals per game and they have allowed 2.73 goals against per game, while also going 28.5% on the power playing and 77% on the penalty kill this season. Jack Eichel has led Vegas with 19 goals, 53 assists, and 183 shots on goal, while Mark Stone has added 16 goals, 35 assists, and 94 shots on goal this year. Adin Hill is 22-10-4 with a 2.52 goals against average and a .906 save percentage this season. 

Why the Golden Knights will beat the Maple Leafs

• The home team has won each of the Golden Knights’ last four games.
• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last three night games after coming off a shootout.
• The home team has covered the puck line in each of the Golden Knights’ last five games.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games after coming off a shootout.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the third period in each of their last four games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Golden Knights’ last eight home games following a win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six games following a shootout win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Golden Knights’ last 14 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 11 games following a shootout win.

Vegas Golden Knights Player Prop Facts

• Mark Stone has recorded at least one point in 11 of his last 12 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Maple Leafs.
• Tomas Hertl has scored a goal in seven of the Golden Knights’ last eight games at T-Mobile Arena.
• Shea Theodore has recorded at least one assist in each of his five previous appearances against the Maple Leafs at T-Mobile Arena.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Auston Matthews has recorded at least one point in each of his last nine appearances with the Maple Leafs as underdogs.
• Matthew Knies has scored a goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games against Pacific Division opponents.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in each of his last six appearances with the Maple Leafs as underdogs against Pacific Division opponents.

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Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Prediction 

Toronto comes into this matchup after a bad loss to the Sharks at home, but they have played pretty well over the last two weeks. The Maple Leafs are 18-9-2 on the road this year, while the Golden Knights are 22-6-3 at home. Vegas has won five of their last six games and they are one of the best home teams in the NHL. The Golden Knights are very good on both ends of the ice and they will be looking for revenge from their 3-0 loss in Toronto earlier this season. These two teams are very similar when looking at the stats, but Toronto’s weird loss to San Jose + Vegas at home has me leaning toward the Golden Knights here.