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Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 4/11/25 NHL Picks
Pick details
Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-7) vs Detroit Red Wings (36-35-7)
April 11, 2025 at 07:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning -278 / Detroit Red Wings +225 — Over/Under: 6.5
In this article, we will formulate a Red Wings vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Friday, April 11, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview
The Detroit Red Wings (36-35-7, 44-34 ATS) opened their three-game road trip with a pair of defeats to the Montreal Canadiens and Florida Panthers and now are officially out of playoff contention. Detroit is 11th in the East with 79 points, the same as the New York Islanders. After this game, the Red Wings will conclude the season against the Stars, Devils, and Maple Leafs.
The Red Wings average 2.78 goals per game this year (24th), while they allow 3.15 GPG (21st). Lucas Raymond leads the team with 75 points (26 G and 49 A). Alex DeBrincat contributes 66 points (36 G and 20 A), while Dylan Larkin has 66 points (29 G and 37 A).
Cam Talbot (20-19-4) will likely take his place in the cage for the Red Wings on Friday against the Lightning. The 37-year-old is allowing 2.88 goals per game this year with a .904 SV% and two shutouts.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-7, 41-37 ATS) were on a four-game winning streak but then suffered three losses in the last four games. Tampa Bay returned home from a four-game road trip on which it beat the Islanders and Rangers and lost to the Senators and Sabres. The Lightning lost the most recent game to the Maple Leafs in overtime and now are three points behind them in the Atlantic Division Standings. If it stands as it is, the Lightning will face the Panthers in the first round of the playoffs.
The Lightning score 3.55 goals per game on average (2nd), while they concede 2.60 GPG (3rd). This season, Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 116 points (34 G and 82 A). Brandon Hagel has 85 points (35 G and 50 A), while Brayden Point chips in with 79 points (41 G and 38 A).
Andrei Vasilevskiy (37-20-4) is expected to start for the Lightning at the goal on Friday against the Red Wings. The 30-year-old is allowing 2.17 goals per game this year with a .922 SV% and six shutouts.
Why the Lightning will beat the Red Wings
- The Red Wings have lost each of their last eight games as road underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Lightning have won 10 of their last 11 night games at Amalie Arena.
- The Red Wings have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Lightning have covered the puck line in four of their last five home games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Lightning have won the third period in eight of their last nine night games at Amalie Arena when leading after the second period.
Total Goals Facts
- Seven of the Red Wings’ last eight games at Amalie Arena following a road loss have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Each of the Lightning’s last four home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Nine of the last 11 night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last four home games.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Red Wings’ last five games following a road loss.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league in power play percentage this season (26.13%).
- The Detroit Red Wings rank 1st in the league for power-play goals this season (62).
- The Detroit Red Wings rank 32nd in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (0.78).
Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction
The Red Wings won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last six, while this season, the Lightning won two of three H2Hs. Tampa still has something to play for, even though they secured a playoff spot. The Lightning are three points behind the Atlantic Division leaders, Toronto, and with four games to go, I am sure they will try to catch the Maple Leafs. Detroit is entirely without any motivation, so I am backing the Lightning to win and cover the puck line.
